Stoke – Preston NE
Championship · Saturday 31 October 12:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
12:30High reliabilityHomeStoke1-1likelyAwayPreston NEModel1 · Stoke 57%
Home
Stoke
1-1likely
Away
Preston NE
Match CenterStatistics only
157%
X24%
219%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WWLWD
Away form
DLLLD
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.8 goals for Stoke and 1.0 for Preston NE. Stoke start as favourites (57%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Stoke57%
Safer double chance1X81%
Most likely exact score1-111%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Preston NEPreston NE defence: concedes 27% more than average.
- Preston NEPreston NE attack: scores 21% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- StokeStoke attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- MatchRecent form: Stoke WWLWD, Preston NE DLLLD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Stoke and 1.0 for Preston NE: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.8 goals for Stoke and 1.0 for Preston NE. Stoke start as favourites (57%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1 · Stoke win57%
League average for this market41% · +16 points
Safer alternative1X · 81%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 77% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 70%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-0, 2-0
Expected goals
1.8 - 0.9
total 2.8
Over 2.5
52%
Under 48%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%
Latest games: Stoke
Dvs Bristol City0-0
W@ Derby County0-1
Lvs Middlesbrough2-3
W@ Bolton1-2
Wvs Sheffield Utd2-1
Latest games: Preston NE
Dvs West Brom1-1
L@ Wrexham4-1
L@ Birmingham4-0
Lvs Millwall0-1
D@ QPR2-2
Latest head-to-heads
20/03/26Preston NE – Stoke3-1
26/12/25Stoke – Preston NE0-0