Millwall – Derby County
Championship · Saturday 31 October 15:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Medium reliabilityHomeMillwall1-1likelyAwayDerby CountyModel1 · Millwall 51%
Home
Millwall
1-1likely
Away
Derby County
Match CenterStatistics only
151%
X26%
223%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
DWLDL
Away form
DDLLD
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.6 goals for Millwall and 1.0 for Derby County. Millwall start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Millwall51%
Safer double chance1X77%
Most likely exact score1-112%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- Derby CountyDerby County attack: scores 13% less than the league average.
- Derby CountyDerby County defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- MillwallMillwall defence: concedes 5% less than average.
- MillwallMillwall attack: scores 4% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Millwall and 1.0 for Derby County: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.6 goals for Millwall and 1.0 for Derby County. Millwall start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1 · Millwall win51%
League average for this market41% · +10 points
Safer alternative1X · 77%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 75% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 73%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
12% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.0
total 2.6
Over 2.5
49%
Under 51%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%
Latest games: Millwall
L@ Portsmouth2-1
Dvs Lincoln City2-2
Lvs Swansea0-1
W@ Preston NE0-1
Dvs West Ham2-2
Latest games: Derby County
D@ Sheffield Utd1-1
Lvs Stoke0-1
L@ QPR4-1
Dvs Wrexham1-1
D@ Burnley1-1
Latest head-to-heads
10/03/26Millwall – Derby County1-0
10/12/25Derby County – Millwall1-1