Norwich – Watford
Championship · Saturday 31 October 12:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
12:30High reliabilityHomeNorwich1-1likelyAwayWatfordModel1 · Norwich 58%
Home
Norwich
1-1likely
Away
Watford
Match CenterStatistics only
158%
X23%
218%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.0
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
LLLLW
Away form
LLLWL
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.9 goals for Norwich and 1.0 for Watford. Norwich start as favourites (58%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Norwich58%
Safer double chance1X82%
Most likely exact score1-111%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- WatfordWatford attack: scores 26% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- WatfordWatford defence: concedes 15% more than average.
- NorwichNorwich attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
- NorwichNorwich defence: concedes 6% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Norwich and 1.0 for Watford: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.9 goals for Norwich and 1.0 for Watford. Norwich start as favourites (58%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1 · Norwich win58%
League average for this market41% · +17 points
Safer alternative1X · 82%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 78% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 68%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-0, 2-0
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.0
total 2.8
Over 2.5
54%
Under 46%
Both teams score
53%
No 47%
Latest games: Norwich
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Latest games: Watford
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