Middlesbrough – Charlton
Championship · Saturday 31 October 15:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00High reliabilityHomeMiddlesbrough2-0likelyAwayCharltonModel1 · Middlesbrough 65%
Home
Middlesbrough
2-0likely
Away
Charlton
Match CenterStatistics only
165%
X21%
214%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.8
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
DWWDW
Away form
LDDLL
Most likely score2-012%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.0 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.8 for Charlton. Middlesbrough start as favourites (65%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Middlesbrough65%
Safer double chance1X86%
Most likely exact score2-012%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough attack: scores 28% more than the league average.
- CharltonCharlton attack: scores 26% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough defence: concedes 9% less than average.
- CharltonCharlton defence: concedes 4% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.8 for Charlton: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.0 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.8 for Charlton. Middlesbrough start as favourites (65%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1 · Middlesbrough win65%
League average for this market41% · +24 points
Safer alternative1X · 86%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 78% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 69%
Most likely exact score2-0 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
2-0
12% · then 1-0, 1-1
Expected goals
2.0 - 0.8
total 2.9
Over 2.5
54%
Under 46%
Both teams score
49%
No 51%
Latest games: Middlesbrough
W@ Bolton1-5
Dvs Cardiff2-2
W@ Stoke2-3
Wvs Wolverhampton1-0
D@ Birmingham2-2
Latest games: Charlton
Lvs Norwich1-3
L@ Watford2-0
D@ Burnley2-2
Dvs Bristol City1-1
L@ Cardiff3-1
Latest head-to-heads
11/03/26Middlesbrough – Charlton0-1
09/12/25Charlton – Middlesbrough1-2