Bolton – Bristol City
Championship · Saturday 31 October 15:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Low reliabilityHomeBolton1-1likelyAwayBristol CityModel1 · Bolton 41%
Home
Bolton
1-1likely
Away
Bristol City
Match CenterStatistics only
141%
X27%
231%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WLWDL
Away form
WDLLD
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.4 goals for Bolton and 1.2 for Bristol City. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Bolton41%
Safer double chance1X69%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- Bristol CityBristol City attack: scores 18% less than the league average.
- BoltonBolton defence: concedes 17% more than average.
- Bristol CityBristol City defence: concedes 5% less than average.
- BoltonBolton attack: scores 2% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Bolton and 1.2 for Bristol City: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.4 goals for Bolton and 1.2 for Bristol City. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals52%
League average for this market48% · +5 points
Safer alternative1X · 69%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 74% · 1X · Bolton avoid defeat · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.2
total 2.6
Over 2.5
48%
Under 52%
Both teams score
53%
No 47%
Latest games: Bolton
Lvs Middlesbrough1-5
D@ Southampton0-0
W@ Wolverhampton1-3
Lvs Stoke1-2
W@ Norwich3-4
Latest games: Bristol City
D@ Stoke0-0
Lvs Sheffield Utd0-1
Lvs Blackburn0-1
D@ Charlton1-1
Wvs Watford1-0