Burnley – Portsmouth
Championship · Saturday 31 October 15:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Low reliabilityHomeBurnley1-1likelyAwayPortsmouthModel2 · Portsmouth 40%
Home
Burnley
1-1likely
Away
Portsmouth
Match CenterStatistics only
135%
X25%
240%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DWDLL
Away form
LWWDW
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.5 goals for Burnley and 1.6 for Portsmouth. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Portsmouth40%
Safer double chanceX265%
Most likely exact score1-112%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- BurnleyBurnley defence: concedes 33% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- PortsmouthPortsmouth attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- PortsmouthPortsmouth defence: concedes 4% less than average.
- BurnleyBurnley attack: scores 2% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Burnley and 1.6 for Portsmouth: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.5 goals for Burnley and 1.6 for Portsmouth. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.553%
League average for this market44% · +8 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 65%
Other strong marketsX2 · Portsmouth avoid defeat · 65% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 64%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
12% · then 1-2, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.6
total 3.0
Over 2.5
58%
Under 42%
Both teams score
61%
No 39%
Latest games: Burnley
L@ Lincoln City4-1
Lvs Wolverhampton1-2
Dvs Charlton2-2
W@ Watford0-4
Dvs Derby County1-1
Latest games: Portsmouth
Wvs Millwall2-1
D@ Wolverhampton1-1
W@ Norwich0-1
Wvs Sheffield Utd3-2
L@ Southampton1-0