Lincoln City – Birmingham
Championship · Saturday 31 October 12:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
12:30Medium reliabilityHomeLincoln City1-1likelyAwayBirminghamModel2 · Birmingham 46%
Home
Lincoln City
1-1likely
Away
Birmingham
Match CenterStatistics only
127%
X27%
246%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.5
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
LLLDW
Away form
DWWWL
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.1 goals for Lincoln City and 1.5 for Birmingham. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Birmingham46%
Safer double chanceX273%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- BirminghamBirmingham defence: concedes 18% less than average.
- Lincoln CityLincoln City attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- Lincoln CityLincoln City defence: concedes 12% more than average.
- BirminghamBirmingham attack: scores 5% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Lincoln City and 1.5 for Birmingham: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.1 goals for Lincoln City and 1.5 for Birmingham. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
X2 · Birmingham avoid defeat73%
League average for this market59% · +15 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 73%
Other strong marketsX2 · Birmingham avoid defeat · 73% · Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 73%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 0-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.5
total 2.5
Over 2.5
47%
Under 53%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%
Latest games: Lincoln City
Wvs Burnley4-1
D@ Millwall2-2
Lvs West Ham0-6
L@ Sheffield Utd3-0
Lvs Swansea1-2
Latest games: Birmingham
L@ Cardiff1-0
Wvs QPR3-0
Wvs Preston NE4-0
W@ West Brom0-1
Dvs Middlesbrough2-2