Aarhus – Braga
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeAarhus1-1likelyAwayBragaModel1 · Aarhus 41%
Home
Aarhus
1-1likely
Away
Braga
Match CenterStatistics only
141%
X27%
232%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LD
Away form
LW
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.4 goals for Aarhus and 1.2 for Braga. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Aarhus41%
Safer double chance1X68%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- AarhusAarhus attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- BragaBraga attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- BragaBraga defence: concedes 2% more than average.
- MatchRecent form: Aarhus LD, Braga LW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Aarhus and 1.2 for Braga: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.4 goals for Aarhus and 1.2 for Braga. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals75%
Safer alternative1X · 68%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 72% · 1X · Aarhus avoid defeat · 68%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.2
total 2.7
Over 2.5
50%
Under 50%
Both teams score
55%
No 45%
Latest games: Aarhus
Dvs Egnatia1-1
L@ Gent1-0
Latest games: Braga
Wvs Gent2-0
L@ Copenhagen3-0