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Fischietto finale

Conference League · matchday 3

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41
Clearest prediction of the round
Lugano
66%
X
18%
Kauno Žalgiris
16%
Likely score 2-1Model prediction Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 90%
Open the analysis

Tap a match to open the details. There you can also make your own prediction and challenge the model: My predictions →

Thursday 5 November

17:45Low reliability
Home
Aarhus
1-1likely
Away
Braga
Model1 · Aarhus 41%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAarhus
VS
AWAYBraga
141%
X27%
232%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LD
Away form
LW
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.4 goals for Aarhus and 1.2 for Braga. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Aarhus41%
Safer double chance1X68%
Most likely exact score1-113%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • AarhusAarhus attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
  • BragaBraga attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
  • BragaBraga defence: concedes 2% more than average.
  • MatchRecent form: Aarhus LD, Braga LW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Aarhus and 1.2 for Braga: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.4 goals for Aarhus and 1.2 for Braga. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals75%
Safer alternative1X · 68%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 72% · 1X · Aarhus avoid defeat · 68%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.2
total 2.7
Over 2.5
50%
Under 50%
Both teams score
55%
No 45%
Latest games: Aarhus
Dvs Egnatia1-1
L@ Gent1-0
Latest games: Braga
Wvs Gent2-0
L@ Copenhagen3-0
17:45High reliability
Home
Atalanta
1-1likely
Away
Kairat Almaty
Model1 · Atalanta 60%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAtalanta
VS
AWAYKairat Almaty
160%
X22%
219%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.1
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WL
Away form
DL
Most likely score1-110%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.1 goals for Atalanta and 1.1 for Kairat Almaty. Atalanta start as favourites (60%), helped by home advantage.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Atalanta60%
Safer double chance1X81%
Most likely exact score1-110%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty defence: concedes 16% more than average.
  • AtalantaAtalanta attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
  • AtalantaAtalanta defence: concedes 10% less than average.
  • Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty attack: scores 7% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.1 goals for Atalanta and 1.1 for Kairat Almaty: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.1 goals for Atalanta and 1.1 for Kairat Almaty. Atalanta start as favourites (60%), helped by home advantage.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals83%
Safer alternative1X · 81%
Other strong markets1X · Atalanta avoid defeat · 81% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 10%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
10% · then 2-1, 2-0
Expected goals
2.1 - 1.1
total 3.2
Over 2.5
62%
Under 38%
Both teams score
59%
No 41%
Latest games: Atalanta
L@ Ajax2-0
Wvs Pafos3-1
Latest games: Kairat Almaty
Lvs Panathinaikos1-5
D@ Riga1-1
17:45Medium reliability
Home
Crvena Zvezda
1-1likely
Away
Inter Escaldes
Model1 · Crvena Zvezda 51%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECrvena Zvezda
VS
AWAYInter Escaldes
151%
X24%
225%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.3
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
LD
Away form
LL
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.9 goals for Crvena Zvezda and 1.2 for Inter Escaldes. Crvena Zvezda start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Crvena Zvezda51%
Safer double chance1X75%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • Inter EscaldesInter Escaldes defence: concedes 12% more than average.
  • Inter EscaldesInter Escaldes attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
  • Crvena ZvezdaCrvena Zvezda defence: concedes 9% more than average.
  • Crvena ZvezdaCrvena Zvezda attack: scores 4% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Crvena Zvezda and 1.2 for Inter Escaldes: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.9 goals for Crvena Zvezda and 1.2 for Inter Escaldes. Crvena Zvezda start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals82%
Safer alternative1X · 75%
Other strong markets1X · Crvena Zvezda avoid defeat · 75% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 62%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.3
total 3.1
Over 2.5
60%
Under 40%
Both teams score
61%
No 39%
Latest games: Crvena Zvezda
Dvs Copenhagen2-2
L@ Lugano3-2
Latest games: Inter Escaldes
Lvs U. Craiova1-3
L@ Mjällby2-0
17:45Low reliability
Home
KuPS Kuopio
1-1likely
Away
Gent
Model1 · KuPS Kuopio 39%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEKuPS Kuopio
VS
AWAYGent
139%
X26%
235%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.4
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LL
Away form
WL
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.5 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 1.4 for Gent. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · KuPS Kuopio39%
Safer double chance1X65%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • KuPS KuopioKuPS Kuopio defence: concedes 16% more than average.
  • GentGent attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
  • KuPS KuopioKuPS Kuopio attack: scores 7% less than the league average.
  • MatchRecent form: KuPS Kuopio LL, Gent WL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 1.4 for Gent: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.5 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 1.4 for Gent. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals78%
Safer alternative1X · 65%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 69% · 1X · KuPS Kuopio avoid defeat · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.5 - 1.4
total 2.8
Over 2.5
53%
Under 47%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
Latest games: KuPS Kuopio
L@ Borac2-0
Lvs Trabzonspor2-4
Latest games: Gent
L@ Braga2-0
Wvs Aarhus1-0
17:45Low reliability
Home
L. Red Imps
1-1likely
Away
Hajduk Split
Model2 · Hajduk Split 41%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEL. Red Imps
VS
AWAYHajduk Split
133%
X26%
241%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LL
Away form
WW
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.4 goals for L. Red Imps and 1.6 for Hajduk Split. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Hajduk Split41%
Safer double chanceX267%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • L. Red ImpsL. Red Imps defence: concedes 15% more than average.
  • L. Red ImpsL. Red Imps attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
  • Hajduk SplitHajduk Split defence: concedes 6% less than average.
  • MatchRecent form: L. Red Imps LL, Hajduk Split WW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for L. Red Imps and 1.6 for Hajduk Split: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.4 goals for L. Red Imps and 1.6 for Hajduk Split. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 67%
Other strong marketsX2 · Hajduk Split avoid defeat · 67% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 66%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 1-2, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.6
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
60%
No 40%
Latest games: L. Red Imps
Lvs Twente1-4
L@ Brann2-1
Latest games: Hajduk Split
W@ Thun0-1
Wvs Ajax2-1
17:45Low reliability
Home
Midtjylland
1-1likely
Away
Ajax
Model1 · Midtjylland 38%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEMidtjylland
VS
AWAYAjax
138%
X27%
235%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DL
Away form
LW
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.4 goals for Midtjylland and 1.3 for Ajax. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Midtjylland38%
Safer double chance1X65%
Most likely exact score1-113%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • MidtjyllandMidtjylland attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
  • AjaxAjax defence: concedes 4% less than average.
  • MidtjyllandMidtjylland defence: concedes 2% less than average.
  • MatchRecent form: Midtjylland DL, Ajax LW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Midtjylland and 1.3 for Ajax: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.4 goals for Midtjylland and 1.3 for Ajax. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals75%
Safer alternative1X · 65%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 72% · 1X · Midtjylland avoid defeat · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.3
total 2.7
Over 2.5
50%
Under 50%
Both teams score
55%
No 45%
Latest games: Midtjylland
Lvs Sint-Truidense0-1
D@ Egnatia1-1
Latest games: Ajax
Wvs Atalanta2-0
L@ Hajduk Split2-1
17:45Low reliability
Home
Mjällby
1-1likely
Away
Borac
Model1 · Mjällby 44%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEMjällby
VS
AWAYBorac
144%
X26%
230%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WD
Away form
LW
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.5 goals for Mjällby and 1.2 for Borac. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Mjällby44%
Safer double chance1X70%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • MjällbyMjällby defence: concedes 6% less than average.
  • BoracBorac defence: concedes 4% less than average.
  • MjällbyMjällby attack: scores 3% less than the league average.
  • BoracBorac attack: scores 3% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Mjällby and 1.2 for Borac: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.5 goals for Mjällby and 1.2 for Borac. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals77%
Safer alternative1X · 70%
Other strong markets1X · Mjällby avoid defeat · 70% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 70%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.5 - 1.2
total 2.8
Over 2.5
52%
Under 48%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
Latest games: Mjällby
D@ Iberia Tbilisi1-1
Wvs Inter Escaldes2-0
Latest games: Borac
Wvs KuPS Kuopio2-0
L@ Panathinaikos2-1
17:45Low reliability
Home
Thun
1-1likely
Away
Hearts
Model1 · Thun 41%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEThun
VS
AWAYHearts
141%
X28%
230%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.1
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LL
Away form
DL
Most likely score1-114%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.3 goals for Thun and 1.1 for Hearts. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%).

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Thun41%
Safer double chance1X70%
Most likely exact score1-114%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • ThunThun attack: scores 17% less than the league average.
  • HeartsHearts attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
  • ThunThun defence: concedes 3% less than average.
  • MatchRecent form: Thun LL, Hearts DL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Thun and 1.1 for Hearts: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.3 goals for Thun and 1.1 for Hearts. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%).

The model's final prediction
Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals77%
Safer alternative1X · 70%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 71% · 1X · Thun avoid defeat · 70%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 14%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
14% · then 1-0, 0-0
Expected goals
1.3 - 1.1
total 2.4
Over 2.5
44%
Under 56%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
Latest games: Thun
Lvs Hajduk Split0-1
L@ Twente1-0
Latest games: Hearts
L@ Trabzonspor2-0
Dvs Nordsjælland1-1
17:45Medium reliability
Home
Trabzonspor
1-1likely
Away
Freiburg
Model1 · Trabzonspor 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMETrabzonspor
VS
AWAYFreiburg
146%
X23%
230%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.5
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
WW
Away form
WL
Most likely score1-110%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.9 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.5 for Freiburg. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Trabzonspor46%
Safer double chance1X70%
Most likely exact score1-110%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • TrabzonsporTrabzonspor attack: scores 13% more than the league average.
  • FreiburgFreiburg attack: scores 13% more than the league average.
  • MatchRecent form: Trabzonspor WW, Freiburg WL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
  • TrabzonsporTrabzonspor defence: concedes 2% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.5 for Freiburg: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.9 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.5 for Freiburg. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals85%
Safer alternative1X · 70%
Other strong markets1X · Trabzonspor avoid defeat · 70% · Both teams score · 66%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 10%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
10% · then 2-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.5
total 3.4
Over 2.5
65%
Under 35%
Both teams score
66%
No 34%
Latest games: Trabzonspor
Wvs Hearts2-0
W@ KuPS Kuopio2-4
Latest games: Freiburg
L@ Monaco3-0
Wvs Jablonec3-2
20:00Medium reliability
Home
Copenhagen
1-1likely
Away
Iberia Tbilisi
Model1 · Copenhagen 53%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECopenhagen
VS
AWAYIberia Tbilisi
153%
X24%
223%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
WD
Away form
LD
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.8 goals for Copenhagen and 1.1 for Iberia Tbilisi. Copenhagen start as favourites (53%), helped by home advantage.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Copenhagen53%
Safer double chance1X77%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • Iberia TbilisiIberia Tbilisi attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
  • CopenhagenCopenhagen attack: scores 8% more than the league average.
  • Iberia TbilisiIberia Tbilisi defence: concedes 2% more than average.
  • CopenhagenCopenhagen defence: concedes 2% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Copenhagen and 1.1 for Iberia Tbilisi: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.8 goals for Copenhagen and 1.1 for Iberia Tbilisi. Copenhagen start as favourites (53%), helped by home advantage.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternative1X · 77%
Other strong markets1X · Copenhagen avoid defeat · 77% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.8 - 1.1
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
Latest games: Copenhagen
D@ Crvena Zvezda2-2
Wvs Braga3-0
Latest games: Iberia Tbilisi
Dvs Mjällby1-1
L@ Sint-Truidense2-0
20:00Medium reliability
Home
Getafe
1-1likely
Away
Brighton
Model2 · Brighton 51%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEGetafe
VS
AWAYBrighton
124%
X25%
251%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.7
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
DL
Away form
WD
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Getafe and 1.7 for Brighton. Brighton are favourites even away from home (51%).

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Brighton51%
Safer double chanceX276%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • BrightonBrighton defence: concedes 31% less than average.
  • BrightonBrighton attack: scores 27% more than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • GetafeGetafe attack: scores 2% less than the league average.
  • GetafeGetafe defence: concedes 2% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Getafe and 1.7 for Brighton: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Getafe and 1.7 for Brighton. Brighton are favourites even away from home (51%).

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals77%
Safer alternativeX2 · 76%
Other strong marketsX2 · Brighton avoid defeat · 76% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 70%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 0-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.7
total 2.8
Over 2.5
52%
Under 48%
Both teams score
54%
No 46%
Latest games: Getafe
Lvs Lugano2-5
D@ U. Craiova1-1
Latest games: Brighton
D@ Jablonec0-0
Wvs Kauno Žalgiris4-0
20:00High reliability
Home
Lugano
2-1likely
Away
Kauno Žalgiris
Model1 · Lugano 66%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMELugano
VS
AWAYKauno Žalgiris
166%
X18%
216%
Expected goals2.6 – 1.3
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WW
Away form
LL
Most likely score2-19%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.6 goals for Lugano and 1.2 for Kauno Žalgiris. Lugano start as favourites (66%), helped by home advantage.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Lugano66%
Safer double chance1X84%
Most likely exact score2-19%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • LuganoLugano attack: scores 25% more than the league average.
  • Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris defence: concedes 23% more than average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
  • LuganoLugano defence: concedes 7% more than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.6 goals for Lugano and 1.2 for Kauno Žalgiris: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.6 goals for Lugano and 1.2 for Kauno Žalgiris. Lugano start as favourites (66%), helped by home advantage.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals90%
Safer alternative1X · 84%
Other strong markets1X · Lugano avoid defeat · 84% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 76%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-1
9% · then 3-1, 1-1
Expected goals
2.6 - 1.3
total 3.8
Over 2.5
73%
Under 27%
Both teams score
66%
No 34%
Latest games: Lugano
W@ Getafe2-5
Wvs Crvena Zvezda3-2
Latest games: Kauno Žalgiris
Lvs Brann1-4
L@ Brighton4-0
20:00High reliability
Home
Monaco
1-1likely
Away
Nordsjælland
Model1 · Monaco 59%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEMonaco
VS
AWAYNordsjælland
159%
X22%
219%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.1
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WW
Away form
DD
Most likely score1-110%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.0 goals for Monaco and 1.1 for Nordsjælland. Monaco start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Monaco59%
Safer double chance1X81%
Most likely exact score1-110%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • MonacoMonaco attack: scores 17% more than the league average.
  • MonacoMonaco defence: concedes 17% less than average.
  • NordsjællandNordsjælland defence: concedes 3% more than average.
  • MatchRecent form: Monaco WW, Nordsjælland DD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for Monaco and 1.1 for Nordsjælland: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.0 goals for Monaco and 1.1 for Nordsjælland. Monaco start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals82%
Safer alternative1X · 81%
Other strong markets1X · Monaco avoid defeat · 81% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 10%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
10% · then 2-1, 2-0
Expected goals
2.0 - 1.1
total 3.1
Over 2.5
60%
Under 40%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
Latest games: Monaco
Wvs Freiburg3-0
W@ CSKA Sofia1-2
Latest games: Nordsjælland
Dvs CSKA Sofia2-2
D@ Hearts1-1
20:00High reliability
Home
Panathinaikos
2-1likely
Away
CSKA Sofia
Model1 · Panathinaikos 56%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPanathinaikos
VS
AWAYCSKA Sofia
156%
X22%
222%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.3
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WW
Away form
LD
Most likely score2-110%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.1 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.3 for CSKA Sofia. Panathinaikos start as favourites (56%), helped by home advantage.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Panathinaikos56%
Safer double chance1X78%
Most likely exact score2-110%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • PanathinaikosPanathinaikos attack: scores 19% more than the league average.
  • CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia defence: concedes 6% more than average.
  • MatchRecent form: Panathinaikos WW, CSKA Sofia LD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
  • PanathinaikosPanathinaikos defence: concedes 2% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.1 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.3 for CSKA Sofia: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.1 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.3 for CSKA Sofia. Panathinaikos start as favourites (56%), helped by home advantage.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals86%
Safer alternative1X · 78%
Other strong markets1X · Panathinaikos avoid defeat · 78% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 68%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 10%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-1
10% · then 1-1, 2-0
Expected goals
2.1 - 1.3
total 3.4
Over 2.5
66%
Under 34%
Both teams score
64%
No 36%
Latest games: Panathinaikos
W@ Kairat Almaty1-5
Wvs Borac2-1
Latest games: CSKA Sofia
D@ Nordsjælland2-2
Lvs Monaco1-2
20:00Low reliability
Home
Riga
1-1likely
Away
Jablonec
Model1 · Riga 42%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMERiga
VS
AWAYJablonec
142%
X27%
231%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DD
Away form
LD
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.5 goals for Riga and 1.2 for Jablonec. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Riga42%
Safer double chance1X69%
Most likely exact score1-113%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • RigaRiga attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
  • JablonecJablonec attack: scores 4% less than the league average.
  • RigaRiga defence: concedes 2% less than average.
  • MatchRecent form: Riga DD, Jablonec LD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Riga and 1.2 for Jablonec: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.5 goals for Riga and 1.2 for Jablonec. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals76%
Safer alternative1X · 69%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 72% · 1X · Riga avoid defeat · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.5 - 1.2
total 2.7
Over 2.5
51%
Under 49%
Both teams score
55%
No 45%
Latest games: Riga
D@ Pafos1-1
Dvs Kairat Almaty1-1
Latest games: Jablonec
Dvs Brighton0-0
L@ Freiburg3-2
20:00Low reliability
Home
Sint-Truidense
1-1likely
Away
Brann
Model1 · Sint-Truidense 43%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESint-Truidense
VS
AWAYBrann
143%
X25%
232%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
WW
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Sint-Truidense and 1.4 for Brann. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Sint-Truidense43%
Safer double chance1X68%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • BrannBrann attack: scores 12% more than the league average.
  • Sint-TruidenseSint-Truidense defence: concedes 11% less than average.
  • MatchRecent form: Sint-Truidense WW, Brann WW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
  • Sint-TruidenseSint-Truidense attack: scores 2% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Sint-Truidense and 1.4 for Brann: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Sint-Truidense and 1.4 for Brann. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals81%
Safer alternative1X · 68%
Other strong markets1X · Sint-Truidense avoid defeat · 68% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.4
total 3.0
Over 2.5
58%
Under 42%
Both teams score
61%
No 39%
Latest games: Sint-Truidense
W@ Midtjylland0-1
Wvs Iberia Tbilisi2-0
Latest games: Brann
W@ Kauno Žalgiris1-4
Wvs L. Red Imps2-1
20:00High reliability
Home
Twente
1-1likely
Away
Pafos
Model1 · Twente 55%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMETwente
VS
AWAYPafos
155%
X23%
222%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WW
Away form
LD
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.9 goals for Twente and 1.2 for Pafos. Twente start as favourites (55%), helped by home advantage.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Twente55%
Safer double chance1X78%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • TwenteTwente attack: scores 9% more than the league average.
  • PafosPafos defence: concedes 6% more than average.
  • PafosPafos attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
  • TwenteTwente defence: concedes 6% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Twente and 1.2 for Pafos: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.9 goals for Twente and 1.2 for Pafos. Twente start as favourites (55%), helped by home advantage.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals82%
Safer alternative1X · 78%
Other strong markets1X · Twente avoid defeat · 78% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 2-1, 2-0
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.2
total 3.1
Over 2.5
60%
Under 40%
Both teams score
59%
No 41%
Latest games: Twente
W@ L. Red Imps1-4
Wvs Thun1-0
Latest games: Pafos
Dvs Riga1-1
L@ Atalanta3-1
20:00Medium reliability
Home
U. Craiova
1-1likely
Away
Egnatia
Model1 · U. Craiova 48%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEU. Craiova
VS
AWAYEgnatia
148%
X25%
227%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
DW
Away form
DD
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.7 goals for U. Craiova and 1.2 for Egnatia. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · U. Craiova48%
Safer double chance1X73%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
  • EgnatiaEgnatia attack: scores 7% less than the league average.
  • U. CraiovaU. Craiova attack: scores 3% more than the league average.
  • U. CraiovaU. Craiova defence: concedes 2% less than average.
  • EgnatiaEgnatia defence: concedes 1% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for U. Craiova and 1.2 for Egnatia: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.7 goals for U. Craiova and 1.2 for Egnatia. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 73%
Other strong markets1X · U. Craiova avoid defeat · 73% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.7 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
56%
Under 44%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
Latest games: U. Craiova
W@ Inter Escaldes1-3
Dvs Getafe1-1
Latest games: Egnatia
D@ Aarhus1-1
Dvs Midtjylland1-1

Next rounds

Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.

Matchday 4

Kairat Almaty – MjällbyThu 26 Nov 15:30 · likely 1-11 34%X 26%2 40%
Ajax – ThunThu 26 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-11 49%X 26%2 24%
Brann – AarhusThu 26 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-11 54%X 24%2 23%
Brighton – U. CraiovaThu 26 Nov 17:45 · likely 2-01 62%X 21%2 16%
Egnatia – L. Red ImpsThu 26 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-11 49%X 25%2 26%
Hearts – MonacoThu 26 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-11 27%X 26%2 48%
Iberia Tbilisi – GetafeThu 26 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-11 38%X 27%2 35%
Jablonec – LuganoThu 26 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-11 37%X 24%2 40%
Kauno Žalgiris – RigaThu 26 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-11 35%X 26%2 39%
Pafos – MidtjyllandThu 26 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-11 42%X 27%2 31%
Borac – AtalantaThu 26 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-11 37%X 26%2 37%
Braga – KuPS KuopioThu 26 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-11 49%X 24%2 26%
CSKA Sofia – TrabzonsporThu 26 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-11 36%X 24%2 40%
Freiburg – TwenteThu 26 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-11 43%X 24%2 32%
Gent – Crvena ZvezdaThu 26 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-11 42%X 26%2 32%
Hajduk Split – Sint-TruidenseThu 26 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-11 42%X 27%2 32%
Inter Escaldes – CopenhagenThu 26 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-11 31%X 25%2 43%
Nordsjælland – PanathinaikosThu 26 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-11 35%X 24%2 41%

Matchday 5

Kairat Almaty – U. CraiovaThu 10 Dec 15:30 · likely 1-11 34%X 25%2 41%
Brann – BragaThu 10 Dec 17:45 · likely 1-11 53%X 23%2 24%
Copenhagen – LuganoThu 10 Dec 17:45 · likely 1-11 43%X 23%2 34%
Freiburg – PanathinaikosThu 10 Dec 17:45 · likely 1-11 42%X 23%2 34%
Getafe – Inter EscaldesThu 10 Dec 17:45 · likely 1-11 52%X 25%2 24%
Iberia Tbilisi – Crvena ZvezdaThu 10 Dec 17:45 · likely 1-11 41%X 26%2 34%
KuPS Kuopio – CSKA SofiaThu 10 Dec 17:45 · likely 1-11 39%X 25%2 36%
L. Red Imps – MidtjyllandThu 10 Dec 17:45 · likely 1-11 39%X 26%2 34%
Riga – AtalantaThu 10 Dec 17:45 · likely 1-11 34%X 26%2 39%
Trabzonspor – JablonecThu 10 Dec 17:45 · likely 1-11 52%X 24%2 25%
Aarhus – TwenteThu 10 Dec 20:00 · likely 1-11 33%X 26%2 40%
Brighton – MonacoThu 10 Dec 20:00 · likely 1-11 52%X 25%2 24%
Egnatia – Kauno ŽalgirisThu 10 Dec 20:00 · likely 1-11 53%X 24%2 23%
Hajduk Split – NordsjællandThu 10 Dec 20:00 · likely 1-11 49%X 25%2 27%
Hearts – BoracThu 10 Dec 20:00 · likely 1-11 37%X 27%2 36%
Mjällby – PafosThu 10 Dec 20:00 · likely 1-11 50%X 25%2 25%
Sint-Truidense – AjaxThu 10 Dec 20:00 · likely 1-11 46%X 26%2 28%
Thun – GentThu 10 Dec 20:00 · likely 1-11 40%X 29%2 32%

Already played

Last 18 predicted matches: outcome right 5 times out of 18.

Thu 22/10Full time
Aarhus
1-1
Egnatia
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 57%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-0
Thu 22/10Full time
Ajax
2-0
Atalanta
✓ Outcome right (1 at 54%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Borac
2-0
KuPS Kuopio
✓ Outcome right (1 at 69%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-0
Thu 22/10Full time
Braga
2-0
Gent
✓ Outcome right (1 at 48%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
L. Red Imps
1-4
Twente
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 54%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Midtjylland
0-1
Sint-Truidense
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 55%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Monaco
3-0
Freiburg
✓ Outcome right (1 at 67%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Thun
0-1
Hajduk Split
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 54%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Crvena Zvezda
2-2
Copenhagen
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 52%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Getafe
2-5
Lugano
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 61%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Iberia Tbilisi
1-1
Mjällby
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 48%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Inter Escaldes
1-3
U. Craiova
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 55%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Jablonec
0-0
Brighton
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 50%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Kauno Žalgiris
1-4
Brann
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 48%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Nordsjælland
2-2
CSKA Sofia
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 66%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-0
Thu 22/10Full time
Pafos
1-1
Riga
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 58%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Thu 22/10Full time
Trabzonspor
2-0
Hearts
✓ Outcome right (1 at 72%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-0
Thu 22/10Full time
Kairat Almaty
1-5
Panathinaikos
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 59%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1