Thun – Hearts
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeThun1-1likelyAwayHeartsModel1 · Thun 41%
Home
Thun
1-1likely
Away
Hearts
Match CenterStatistics only
141%
X28%
230%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.1
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LL
Away form
DL
Most likely score1-114%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.3 goals for Thun and 1.1 for Hearts. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Thun41%
Safer double chance1X70%
Most likely exact score1-114%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- ThunThun attack: scores 17% less than the league average.
- HeartsHearts attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- ThunThun defence: concedes 3% less than average.
- MatchRecent form: Thun LL, Hearts DL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Thun and 1.1 for Hearts: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.3 goals for Thun and 1.1 for Hearts. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%).
The model's final prediction
Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals77%
Safer alternative1X · 70%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 71% · 1X · Thun avoid defeat · 70%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 14%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
14% · then 1-0, 0-0
Expected goals
1.3 - 1.1
total 2.4
Over 2.5
44%
Under 56%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
Latest games: Thun
Lvs Hajduk Split0-1
L@ Twente1-0
Latest games: Hearts
L@ Trabzonspor2-0
Dvs Nordsjælland1-1