Copenhagen – Iberia Tbilisi
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeCopenhagen1-1likelyAwayIberia TbilisiModel1 · Copenhagen 53%
Home
Copenhagen
1-1likely
Away
Iberia Tbilisi
Match CenterStatistics only
153%
X24%
223%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
WD
Away form
LD
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.8 goals for Copenhagen and 1.1 for Iberia Tbilisi. Copenhagen start as favourites (53%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Copenhagen53%
Safer double chance1X77%
Most likely exact score1-111%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- Iberia TbilisiIberia Tbilisi attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
- CopenhagenCopenhagen attack: scores 8% more than the league average.
- Iberia TbilisiIberia Tbilisi defence: concedes 2% more than average.
- CopenhagenCopenhagen defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Copenhagen and 1.1 for Iberia Tbilisi: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.8 goals for Copenhagen and 1.1 for Iberia Tbilisi. Copenhagen start as favourites (53%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternative1X · 77%
Other strong markets1X · Copenhagen avoid defeat · 77% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
11% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.8 - 1.1
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
Latest games: Copenhagen
D@ Crvena Zvezda2-2
Wvs Braga3-0
Latest games: Iberia Tbilisi
Dvs Mjällby1-1
L@ Sint-Truidense2-0