L. Red Imps – Hajduk Split
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeL. Red Imps1-1likelyAwayHajduk SplitModel2 · Hajduk Split 41%
Home
L. Red Imps
1-1likely
Away
Hajduk Split
Match CenterStatistics only
133%
X26%
241%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LL
Away form
WW
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.4 goals for L. Red Imps and 1.6 for Hajduk Split. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Hajduk Split41%
Safer double chanceX267%
Most likely exact score1-112%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- L. Red ImpsL. Red Imps defence: concedes 15% more than average.
- L. Red ImpsL. Red Imps attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- Hajduk SplitHajduk Split defence: concedes 6% less than average.
- MatchRecent form: L. Red Imps LL, Hajduk Split WW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for L. Red Imps and 1.6 for Hajduk Split: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.4 goals for L. Red Imps and 1.6 for Hajduk Split. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 67%
Other strong marketsX2 · Hajduk Split avoid defeat · 67% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 66%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
12% · then 1-2, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.6
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
60%
No 40%
Latest games: L. Red Imps
Lvs Twente1-4
L@ Brann2-1
Latest games: Hajduk Split
W@ Thun0-1
Wvs Ajax2-1