Midtjylland – Ajax
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeMidtjylland1-1likelyAwayAjaxModel1 · Midtjylland 38%
Home
Midtjylland
1-1likely
Away
Ajax
Match CenterStatistics only
138%
X27%
235%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DL
Away form
LW
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.4 goals for Midtjylland and 1.3 for Ajax. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Midtjylland38%
Safer double chance1X65%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- MidtjyllandMidtjylland attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
- AjaxAjax defence: concedes 4% less than average.
- MidtjyllandMidtjylland defence: concedes 2% less than average.
- MatchRecent form: Midtjylland DL, Ajax LW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Midtjylland and 1.3 for Ajax: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.4 goals for Midtjylland and 1.3 for Ajax. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals75%
Safer alternative1X · 65%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 72% · 1X · Midtjylland avoid defeat · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.3
total 2.7
Over 2.5
50%
Under 50%
Both teams score
55%
No 45%
Latest games: Midtjylland
Lvs Sint-Truidense0-1
D@ Egnatia1-1
Latest games: Ajax
Wvs Atalanta2-0
L@ Hajduk Split2-1