Atalanta – Kairat Almaty
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45High reliabilityHomeAtalanta1-1likelyAwayKairat AlmatyModel1 · Atalanta 60%
Home
Atalanta
1-1likely
Away
Kairat Almaty
Match CenterStatistics only
160%
X22%
219%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.1
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WL
Away form
DL
Most likely score1-110%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.1 goals for Atalanta and 1.1 for Kairat Almaty. Atalanta start as favourites (60%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Atalanta60%
Safer double chance1X81%
Most likely exact score1-110%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty defence: concedes 16% more than average.
- AtalantaAtalanta attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
- AtalantaAtalanta defence: concedes 10% less than average.
- Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty attack: scores 7% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.1 goals for Atalanta and 1.1 for Kairat Almaty: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.1 goals for Atalanta and 1.1 for Kairat Almaty. Atalanta start as favourites (60%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals83%
Safer alternative1X · 81%
Other strong markets1X · Atalanta avoid defeat · 81% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 10%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
10% · then 2-1, 2-0
Expected goals
2.1 - 1.1
total 3.2
Over 2.5
62%
Under 38%
Both teams score
59%
No 41%
Latest games: Atalanta
L@ Ajax2-0
Wvs Pafos3-1
Latest games: Kairat Almaty
Lvs Panathinaikos1-5
D@ Riga1-1