Crvena Zvezda – Inter Escaldes
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Medium reliabilityHomeCrvena Zvezda1-1likelyAwayInter EscaldesModel1 · Crvena Zvezda 51%
Home
Crvena Zvezda
1-1likely
Away
Inter Escaldes
Match CenterStatistics only
151%
X24%
225%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.3
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
LD
Away form
LL
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.9 goals for Crvena Zvezda and 1.2 for Inter Escaldes. Crvena Zvezda start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Crvena Zvezda51%
Safer double chance1X75%
Most likely exact score1-111%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- Inter EscaldesInter Escaldes defence: concedes 12% more than average.
- Inter EscaldesInter Escaldes attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- Crvena ZvezdaCrvena Zvezda defence: concedes 9% more than average.
- Crvena ZvezdaCrvena Zvezda attack: scores 4% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Crvena Zvezda and 1.2 for Inter Escaldes: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.9 goals for Crvena Zvezda and 1.2 for Inter Escaldes. Crvena Zvezda start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals82%
Safer alternative1X · 75%
Other strong markets1X · Crvena Zvezda avoid defeat · 75% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 62%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
11% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.3
total 3.1
Over 2.5
60%
Under 40%
Both teams score
61%
No 39%
Latest games: Crvena Zvezda
Dvs Copenhagen2-2
L@ Lugano3-2
Latest games: Inter Escaldes
Lvs U. Craiova1-3
L@ Mjällby2-0