Twente – Pafos
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomeTwente1-1likelyAwayPafosModel1 · Twente 55%
Home
Twente
1-1likely
Away
Pafos
Match CenterStatistics only
155%
X23%
222%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WW
Away form
LD
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.9 goals for Twente and 1.2 for Pafos. Twente start as favourites (55%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Twente55%
Safer double chance1X78%
Most likely exact score1-111%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- TwenteTwente attack: scores 9% more than the league average.
- PafosPafos defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- PafosPafos attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- TwenteTwente defence: concedes 6% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Twente and 1.2 for Pafos: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.9 goals for Twente and 1.2 for Pafos. Twente start as favourites (55%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals82%
Safer alternative1X · 78%
Other strong markets1X · Twente avoid defeat · 78% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
11% · then 2-1, 2-0
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.2
total 3.1
Over 2.5
60%
Under 40%
Both teams score
59%
No 41%
Latest games: Twente
W@ L. Red Imps1-4
Wvs Thun1-0
Latest games: Pafos
Dvs Riga1-1
L@ Atalanta3-1