Monaco – Nordsjælland
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomeMonaco1-1likelyAwayNordsjællandModel1 · Monaco 59%
Home
Monaco
1-1likely
Away
Nordsjælland
Match CenterStatistics only
159%
X22%
219%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.1
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WW
Away form
DD
Most likely score1-110%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.0 goals for Monaco and 1.1 for Nordsjælland. Monaco start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Monaco59%
Safer double chance1X81%
Most likely exact score1-110%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- MonacoMonaco attack: scores 17% more than the league average.
- MonacoMonaco defence: concedes 17% less than average.
- NordsjællandNordsjælland defence: concedes 3% more than average.
- MatchRecent form: Monaco WW, Nordsjælland DD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for Monaco and 1.1 for Nordsjælland: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.0 goals for Monaco and 1.1 for Nordsjælland. Monaco start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals82%
Safer alternative1X · 81%
Other strong markets1X · Monaco avoid defeat · 81% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 10%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
10% · then 2-1, 2-0
Expected goals
2.0 - 1.1
total 3.1
Over 2.5
60%
Under 40%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
Latest games: Monaco
Wvs Freiburg3-0
W@ CSKA Sofia1-2
Latest games: Nordsjælland
Dvs CSKA Sofia2-2
D@ Hearts1-1