Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomePanathinaikos2-1likelyAwayCSKA SofiaModel1 · Panathinaikos 56%
Home
Panathinaikos
2-1likely
Away
CSKA Sofia
Match CenterStatistics only
156%
X22%
222%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.3
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WW
Away form
LD
Most likely score2-110%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.1 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.3 for CSKA Sofia. Panathinaikos start as favourites (56%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Panathinaikos56%
Safer double chance1X78%
Most likely exact score2-110%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- PanathinaikosPanathinaikos attack: scores 19% more than the league average.
- CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- MatchRecent form: Panathinaikos WW, CSKA Sofia LD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
- PanathinaikosPanathinaikos defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.1 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.3 for CSKA Sofia: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.1 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.3 for CSKA Sofia. Panathinaikos start as favourites (56%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals86%
Safer alternative1X · 78%
Other strong markets1X · Panathinaikos avoid defeat · 78% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 68%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 10%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
2-1
10% · then 1-1, 2-0
Expected goals
2.1 - 1.3
total 3.4
Over 2.5
66%
Under 34%
Both teams score
64%
No 36%
Latest games: Panathinaikos
W@ Kairat Almaty1-5
Wvs Borac2-1
Latest games: CSKA Sofia
D@ Nordsjælland2-2
Lvs Monaco1-2