Trabzonspor – Freiburg
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Medium reliabilityHomeTrabzonspor1-1likelyAwayFreiburgModel1 · Trabzonspor 46%
Home
Trabzonspor
1-1likely
Away
Freiburg
Match CenterStatistics only
146%
X23%
230%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.5
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
WW
Away form
WL
Most likely score1-110%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.9 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.5 for Freiburg. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Trabzonspor46%
Safer double chance1X70%
Most likely exact score1-110%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- TrabzonsporTrabzonspor attack: scores 13% more than the league average.
- FreiburgFreiburg attack: scores 13% more than the league average.
- MatchRecent form: Trabzonspor WW, Freiburg WL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
- TrabzonsporTrabzonspor defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.5 for Freiburg: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.9 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.5 for Freiburg. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals85%
Safer alternative1X · 70%
Other strong markets1X · Trabzonspor avoid defeat · 70% · Both teams score · 66%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 10%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
10% · then 2-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.5
total 3.4
Over 2.5
65%
Under 35%
Both teams score
66%
No 34%
Latest games: Trabzonspor
Wvs Hearts2-0
W@ KuPS Kuopio2-4
Latest games: Freiburg
L@ Monaco3-0
Wvs Jablonec3-2