Riga – Jablonec
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Low reliabilityHomeRiga1-1likelyAwayJablonecModel1 · Riga 42%
Home
Riga
1-1likely
Away
Jablonec
Match CenterStatistics only
142%
X27%
231%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DD
Away form
LD
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.5 goals for Riga and 1.2 for Jablonec. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Riga42%
Safer double chance1X69%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- RigaRiga attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
- JablonecJablonec attack: scores 4% less than the league average.
- RigaRiga defence: concedes 2% less than average.
- MatchRecent form: Riga DD, Jablonec LD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Riga and 1.2 for Jablonec: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.5 goals for Riga and 1.2 for Jablonec. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals76%
Safer alternative1X · 69%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 72% · 1X · Riga avoid defeat · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.5 - 1.2
total 2.7
Over 2.5
51%
Under 49%
Both teams score
55%
No 45%
Latest games: Riga
D@ Pafos1-1
Dvs Kairat Almaty1-1
Latest games: Jablonec
Dvs Brighton0-0
L@ Freiburg3-2