Lugano – Kauno Žalgiris
Conference League · Thursday 5 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomeLugano2-1likelyAwayKauno ŽalgirisModel1 · Lugano 66%
Home
Lugano
2-1likely
Away
Kauno Žalgiris
Match CenterStatistics only
166%
X18%
216%
Expected goals2.6 – 1.3
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WW
Away form
LL
Most likely score2-19%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.6 goals for Lugano and 1.2 for Kauno Žalgiris. Lugano start as favourites (66%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Lugano66%
Safer double chance1X84%
Most likely exact score2-19%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- LuganoLugano attack: scores 25% more than the league average.
- Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris defence: concedes 23% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 22% more than the away side.
- Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
- LuganoLugano defence: concedes 7% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.6 goals for Lugano and 1.2 for Kauno Žalgiris: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.6 goals for Lugano and 1.2 for Kauno Žalgiris. Lugano start as favourites (66%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals90%
Safer alternative1X · 84%
Other strong markets1X · Lugano avoid defeat · 84% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 76%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 9%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
2-1
9% · then 3-1, 1-1
Expected goals
2.6 - 1.3
total 3.8
Over 2.5
73%
Under 27%
Both teams score
66%
No 34%
Latest games: Lugano
W@ Getafe2-5
Wvs Crvena Zvezda3-2
Latest games: Kauno Žalgiris
Lvs Brann1-4
L@ Brighton4-0