Groningen – Sparta
Eredivisie · Sunday 1 November 15:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
15:45High reliabilityHomeGroningen2-1likelyAwaySpartaModel1 · Groningen 57%
Home
Groningen
2-1likely
Away
Sparta
Match CenterStatistics only
157%
X21%
222%
Expected goals2.4 – 1.5
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
DWWLD
Away form
LLDWL
Most likely score2-19%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.4 goals for Groningen and 1.5 for Sparta. Groningen start as favourites (57%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Groningen57%
Safer double chance1X78%
Most likely exact score2-19%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- SpartaSparta defence: concedes 16% more than average.
- GroningenGroningen attack: scores 15% more than the league average.
- SpartaSparta attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- GroningenGroningen defence: concedes 1% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.4 goals for Groningen and 1.5 for Sparta: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.4 goals for Groningen and 1.5 for Sparta. Groningen start as favourites (57%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1 + Over 1.553%
League average for this market36% · +17 points
Safer alternative1X · 78%
Other strong markets1X · Groningen avoid defeat · 78% · Over 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 74%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 9%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
2-1
9% · then 1-1, 3-1
Expected goals
2.4 - 1.5
total 3.9
Over 2.5
74%
Under 26%
Both teams score
71%
No 29%
Latest games: Groningen
D@ NEC2-2
Lvs Ajax2-5
W@ Excelsior1-5
Wvs Zwolle3-0
D@ Go Ahead1-1
Latest games: Sparta
Lvs Ajax1-2
Wvs Willem II3-2
D@ Go Ahead3-3
Lvs Heerenveen0-4
L@ PSV4-1
Latest head-to-heads
31/01/26Sparta – Groningen2-0
19/10/25Groningen – Sparta0-2