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Saturday 31 October
15:30High reliabilityHomeFeyenoord2-1likelyAwaySittardModel1 · Feyenoord 65%
The model expects 2.5 goals for Feyenoord and 1.2 for Sittard. Feyenoord start as favourites (65%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- FeyenoordFeyenoord attack: scores 38% more than the league average.
- FeyenoordFeyenoord defence: concedes 26% less than average.
- SittardSittard attack: scores 7% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- SittardSittard defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.5 goals for Feyenoord and 1.2 for Sittard: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.5 goals for Feyenoord and 1.2 for Sittard. Feyenoord start as favourites (65%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeHeerenveen1-1likelyAwayNECModel1 · Heerenveen 43%
The model expects 1.7 goals for Heerenveen and 1.5 for NEC. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- HeerenveenHeerenveen defence: concedes 16% less than average.
- NECNEC defence: concedes 6% less than average.
- NECNEC attack: scores 5% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- HeerenveenHeerenveen attack: scores 3% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Heerenveen and 1.5 for NEC: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.7 goals for Heerenveen and 1.5 for NEC. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45High reliabilityHomePSV4-0likelyAwayWillem IIModel1 · PSV 89%
The model expects 4.2 goals for PSV and 1.0 for Willem II. PSV start as favourites (89%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- PSVPSV attack: scores 54% more than the league average.
- Willem IIWillem II defence: concedes 53% more than average.
- Willem IIWillem II attack: scores 26% less than the league average.
- PSVPSV defence: concedes 20% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 4.2 goals for PSV and 1.0 for Willem II: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 4.2 goals for PSV and 1.0 for Willem II. PSV start as favourites (89%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Low reliabilityHomeCambuur2-2likelyAwayGo AheadModel1 · Cambuur 41%
The model expects 2.2 goals for Cambuur and 2.1 for Go Ahead. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- CambuurCambuur defence: concedes 14% more than average.
- Go AheadGo Ahead defence: concedes 11% more than average.
- CambuurCambuur attack: scores 10% more than the league average.
- Go AheadGo Ahead attack: scores 9% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.2 goals for Cambuur and 2.1 for Go Ahead: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.2 goals for Cambuur and 2.1 for Go Ahead. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeAjax1-1likelyAwayAZModel1 · Ajax 49%
The model expects 1.9 goals for Ajax and 1.3 for AZ. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- AjaxAjax attack: scores 28% more than the league average.
- AjaxAjax defence: concedes 22% less than average.
- AZAZ defence: concedes 18% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- AZAZ attack: scores 2% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Ajax and 1.3 for AZ: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.9 goals for Ajax and 1.3 for AZ. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Sunday 1 November
11:15Low reliabilityHomeZwolle1-1likelyAwayDen HaagModel2 · Den Haag 42%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Zwolle and 1.8 for Den Haag. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- ZwolleZwolle attack: scores 21% less than the league average.
- ZwolleZwolle defence: concedes 14% more than average.
- Den HaagDen Haag defence: concedes 10% more than average.
- Den HaagDen Haag attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Zwolle and 1.8 for Den Haag: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Zwolle and 1.8 for Den Haag. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
13:30Low reliabilityHomeTelstar1-1likelyAwayUtrechtModel2 · Utrecht 40%
The model expects 1.7 goals for Telstar and 1.7 for Utrecht. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- TelstarTelstar attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
- UtrechtUtrecht defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- TelstarTelstar defence: concedes 2% more than average.
- MatchRecent form: Telstar DLDLL, Utrecht WLWWD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Telstar and 1.7 for Utrecht: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.7 goals for Telstar and 1.7 for Utrecht. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
13:30Medium reliabilityHomeExcelsior1-1likelyAwayTwenteModel2 · Twente 54%
The model expects 1.1 goals for Excelsior and 1.9 for Twente. Twente are favourites even away from home (54%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- TwenteTwente defence: concedes 30% less than average.
- ExcelsiorExcelsior attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
- TwenteTwente attack: scores 7% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- MatchRecent form: Excelsior LDLLL, Twente WWDLW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Excelsior and 1.9 for Twente: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.1 goals for Excelsior and 1.9 for Twente. Twente are favourites even away from home (54%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:45High reliabilityHomeGroningen2-1likelyAwaySpartaModel1 · Groningen 57%
The model expects 2.4 goals for Groningen and 1.5 for Sparta. Groningen start as favourites (57%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- SpartaSparta defence: concedes 16% more than average.
- GroningenGroningen attack: scores 15% more than the league average.
- SpartaSparta attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- GroningenGroningen defence: concedes 1% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.4 goals for Groningen and 1.5 for Sparta: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.4 goals for Groningen and 1.5 for Sparta. Groningen start as favourites (57%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Next rounds
Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.