Heerenveen – NEC
Eredivisie · Saturday 31 October 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45Low reliabilityHomeHeerenveen1-1likelyAwayNECModel1 · Heerenveen 43%
Home
Heerenveen
1-1likely
Away
NEC
Match CenterStatistics only
143%
X25%
232%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DWLWW
Away form
LDDDD
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.7 goals for Heerenveen and 1.5 for NEC. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Heerenveen43%
Safer double chance1X68%
Most likely exact score1-111%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- HeerenveenHeerenveen defence: concedes 16% less than average.
- NECNEC defence: concedes 6% less than average.
- NECNEC attack: scores 5% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- HeerenveenHeerenveen attack: scores 3% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Heerenveen and 1.5 for NEC: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.7 goals for Heerenveen and 1.5 for NEC. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
1X · Heerenveen avoid defeat68%
League average for this market68% · 0 points
Safer alternative1X · 68%
Other strong markets1X · Heerenveen avoid defeat · 68% · Both teams score · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
11% · then 2-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.7 - 1.5
total 3.2
Over 2.5
62%
Under 38%
Both teams score
65%
No 35%
Latest games: Heerenveen
W@ Den Haag2-3
Wvs Excelsior4-0
L@ PSV2-0
W@ Sparta0-4
Dvs Telstar0-0
Latest games: NEC
Dvs Groningen2-2
Dvs Sittard2-2
D@ Ajax1-1
Dvs Go Ahead1-1
L@ Cambuur3-0
Latest head-to-heads
22/03/26NEC – Heerenveen2-2
21/09/25Heerenveen – NEC3-2