Blue bar: top four. Red bar: bottom three. Tap a team to open its page.
How the season could end
The model played the 216 remaining matches 5,000 times, starting from today's table. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference and goals scored (not head-to-head). These are probabilities, not certainties.
| Team | Avg. pos. | First place | Top 4 | Bottom 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 1.8 | 49% | 98% | 0% |
| PSV | 2.1 | 36% | 97% | 0% |
| Ajax | 3.2 | 10% | 84% | 0% |
| Twente | 4.0 | 4% | 69% | 0% |
| AZ | 5.6 | 1% | 28% | <1% |
| Heerenveen | 7.2 | <1% | 9% | <1% |
| Groningen | 7.3 | <1% | 9% | <1% |
| Sittard | 8.4 | <1% | 4% | <1% |
| NEC | 10.1 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Go Ahead | 10.3 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Cambuur | 10.9 | 0% | <1% | 1% |
| Utrecht | 11.3 | 0% | <1% | 2% |
| Excelsior | 12.4 | 0% | <1% | 5% |
| Telstar | 14.0 | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| Den Haag | 14.3 | 0% | 0% | 18% |
| Sparta | 14.7 | 0% | <1% | 23% |
| Zwolle | 15.3 | 0% | 0% | 35% |
| Willem II | 17.9 | 0% | 0% | 99% |