Excelsior – Twente
Eredivisie · Sunday 1 November 13:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
13:30Medium reliabilityHomeExcelsior1-1likelyAwayTwenteModel2 · Twente 54%
Home
Excelsior
1-1likely
Away
Twente
Match CenterStatistics only
121%
X25%
254%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
LDLLL
Away form
WWDLW
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.1 goals for Excelsior and 1.9 for Twente. Twente are favourites even away from home (54%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Twente54%
Safer double chanceX279%
Most likely exact score1-112%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- TwenteTwente defence: concedes 30% less than average.
- ExcelsiorExcelsior attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
- TwenteTwente attack: scores 7% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- MatchRecent form: Excelsior LDLLL, Twente WWDLW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Excelsior and 1.9 for Twente: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.1 goals for Excelsior and 1.9 for Twente. Twente are favourites even away from home (54%).
The model's final prediction
2 · Twente win54%
League average for this market32% · +23 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 79%
Other strong marketsX2 · Twente avoid defeat · 79% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 66%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
12% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 2.9
Over 2.5
56%
Under 44%
Both teams score
57%
No 43%
Latest games: Excelsior
L@ Sittard1-0
L@ Heerenveen4-0
Lvs Groningen1-5
D@ Ajax2-2
Lvs Utrecht1-2
Latest games: Twente
W@ AZ0-2
Lvs Utrecht1-2
D@ Sittard1-1
Wvs PSV3-2
Wvs Den Haag2-0
Latest head-to-heads
24/01/26Twente – Excelsior0-0
30/08/25Excelsior – Twente1-0