PSV – Willem II
Eredivisie · Saturday 31 October 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
17:45High reliabilityHomePSV4-0likelyAwayWillem IIModel1 · PSV 89%
Home
PSV
4-0likely
Away
Willem II
Match CenterStatistics only
189%
X7%
24%
Expected goals4.2 – 1.0
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WLWLD
Away form
LLLLL
Most likely score4-07%
Why this outcome
The model expects 4.2 goals for PSV and 1.0 for Willem II. PSV start as favourites (89%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · PSV89%
Safer double chance1X96%
Most likely exact score4-07%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- PSVPSV attack: scores 54% more than the league average.
- Willem IIWillem II defence: concedes 53% more than average.
- Willem IIWillem II attack: scores 26% less than the league average.
- PSVPSV defence: concedes 20% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 4.2 goals for PSV and 1.0 for Willem II: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 4.2 goals for PSV and 1.0 for Willem II. PSV start as favourites (89%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1 + Over 1.586%
League average for this market36% · +50 points
Safer alternative1X · 96%
Other strong markets1X · PSV avoid defeat · 96% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 93%
Most likely exact score4-0 · 7%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
4-0
7% · then 4-1, 3-0
Expected goals
4.2 - 1.0
total 5.2
Over 2.5
88%
Under 12%
Both teams score
62%
No 38%
Latest games: PSV
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L@ Den Haag2-1
Wvs Heerenveen2-0
L@ Twente3-2
Wvs Sparta4-1
Latest games: Willem II
Lvs Cambuur1-6
L@ Sparta3-2
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Lvs Sittard0-1
L@ Ajax5-1