Telstar – Utrecht
Eredivisie · Sunday 1 November 13:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
13:30Low reliabilityHomeTelstar1-1likelyAwayUtrechtModel2 · Utrecht 40%
Home
Telstar
1-1likely
Away
Utrecht
Match CenterStatistics only
136%
X24%
240%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.7
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DLDLL
Away form
WLWWD
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.7 goals for Telstar and 1.7 for Utrecht. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Utrecht40%
Safer double chanceX264%
Most likely exact score1-111%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- TelstarTelstar attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
- UtrechtUtrecht defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- TelstarTelstar defence: concedes 2% more than average.
- MatchRecent form: Telstar DLDLL, Utrecht WLWWD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Telstar and 1.7 for Utrecht: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.7 goals for Telstar and 1.7 for Utrecht. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
X2 · Utrecht avoid defeat64%
League average for this market59% · +5 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 64%
Other strong marketsBoth teams score · 68% · Over 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 66%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 2-1
Expected goals
1.7 - 1.7
total 3.4
Over 2.5
66%
Under 34%
Both teams score
68%
No 32%
Latest games: Telstar
L@ Go Ahead3-2
Lvs Feyenoord3-4
Dvs Den Haag2-2
L@ AZ1-0
D@ Heerenveen0-0
Latest games: Utrecht
Dvs Zwolle1-1
W@ Twente1-2
Wvs Willem II3-1
L@ Feyenoord5-0
W@ Excelsior1-2
Latest head-to-heads
11/04/26Utrecht – Telstar4-1
23/11/25Telstar – Utrecht1-1