Ajax – AZ
Eredivisie · Saturday 31 October 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeAjax1-1likelyAwayAZModel1 · Ajax 49%
Home
Ajax
1-1likely
Away
AZ
Match CenterStatistics only
149%
X24%
227%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.4
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
WDDWW
Away form
DWLDL
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.9 goals for Ajax and 1.3 for AZ. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Ajax49%
Safer double chance1X74%
Most likely exact score1-111%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- AjaxAjax attack: scores 28% more than the league average.
- AjaxAjax defence: concedes 22% less than average.
- AZAZ defence: concedes 18% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 4% more than the away side.
- AZAZ attack: scores 2% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Ajax and 1.3 for AZ: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.9 goals for Ajax and 1.3 for AZ. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
1X · Ajax avoid defeat74%
League average for this market68% · +5 points
Safer alternative1X · 74%
Other strong markets1X · Ajax avoid defeat · 74% · Both teams score · 64%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
11% · then 2-1, 2-0
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.4
total 3.2
Over 2.5
63%
Under 37%
Both teams score
64%
No 36%
Latest games: Ajax
W@ Sparta1-2
W@ Groningen2-5
Dvs NEC1-1
Dvs Excelsior2-2
Wvs Willem II5-1
Latest games: AZ
Lvs Twente0-2
D@ Cambuur2-2
L@ Feyenoord2-0
Wvs Telstar1-0
Dvs Willem II1-1
Latest head-to-heads
08/02/26AZ – Ajax1-1
18/10/25Ajax – AZ0-2