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Fischietto finale

LaLiga · matchday 11

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:40

Deportivo – Osasuna

LaLiga · Monday 2 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Medium reliability
Home
Deportivo
1-1likely
Away
Osasuna
Model1 · Deportivo 53%
Match CenterStatistics only
153%
X26%
221%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
LDLDL
Away form
LLDLW
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.7 goals for Deportivo and 1.0 for Osasuna. Deportivo start as favourites (53%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Deportivo53%
Safer double chance1X79%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • OsasunaOsasuna defence: concedes 15% more than average.
  • OsasunaOsasuna attack: scores 14% less than the league average.
  • DeportivoDeportivo attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
  • DeportivoDeportivo defence: concedes 5% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Deportivo and 1.0 for Osasuna: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.7 goals for Deportivo and 1.0 for Osasuna. Deportivo start as favourites (53%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
1X · Deportivo avoid defeat79%
League average for this market73% · +6 points
Safer alternative1X · 79%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 76% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 71%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 1-0, 2-0
Expected goals
1.7 - 1.0
total 2.7
Over 2.5
51%
Under 49%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%
Latest games: Deportivo
L@ Atleti1-0
Dvs Levante1-1
L@ Real Sociedad3-2
Dvs Real Betis1-1
Lvs Sevilla FC0-1
Latest games: Osasuna
Wvs Santander2-0
L@ Real Betis5-2
Dvs Rayo Vallecano1-1
L@ Atleti4-0
Lvs Espanyol0-2

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