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Fischietto finale

LaLiga · matchday 11

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:40

For each match the model chooses the most likely outcome. Here you put them together and see how much the overall probability drops.

Selections
Type

Double chance (1X, X2), Over 1.5 and Under 3.5 are almost always the most likely but say little about the match. "Clear-cut selections" leaves them out.

THE MOST LIKELY82%
Barça – Alavés
Most likely outcome: Barça win · statistical model

The most likely

sorted by probability
#1TOP
Barça – Alavés
Barça win · 1
82%probability
#2
Santander – Real Madrid
At least 3 goals · Over 2.5
74%probability
#3
Real Betis – Málaga
Real Betis win · 1
69%probability
✓ selections ranked by the model3 selectionscombined probability 42%

These are statistical probabilities, not guarantees. The combined probability is the product of the single probabilities and drops quickly as you add selections.

How the probability drops

1 selection82%
2 selections61%
3 selections42%
4 selections28%
5 selections18%

Matches are treated as independent. The more selections you add, the more likely one of them is wrong.