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Friday 30 October
20:00High reliabilityHomeVillarreal1-1likelyAwayEspanyolModel1 · Villarreal 59%
The model expects 1.9 goals for Villarreal and 0.9 for Espanyol. Villarreal start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
- EspanyolEspanyol attack: scores 18% less than the league average.
- VillarrealVillarreal attack: scores 14% more than the league average.
- VillarrealVillarreal defence: concedes 8% less than average.
- MatchRecent form: Villarreal WWLDW, Espanyol LLDLL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Villarreal and 0.9 for Espanyol: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.9 goals for Villarreal and 0.9 for Espanyol. Villarreal start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Saturday 31 October
13:00Low reliabilityHomeLevante1-1likelyAwayAtletiModel2 · Atleti 44%
The model expects 1.4 goals for Levante and 1.7 for Atleti. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
- AtletiAtleti defence: concedes 21% less than average.
- AtletiAtleti attack: scores 18% more than the league average.
- LevanteLevante defence: concedes 12% more than average.
- LevanteLevante attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Levante and 1.7 for Atleti: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Levante and 1.7 for Atleti. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:15Low reliabilityHomeRayo Vallecano1-1likelyAwayCeltaModel1 · Rayo Vallecano 36%
The model expects 1.2 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.2 for Celta. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
- CeltaCelta defence: concedes 18% less than average.
- Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano attack: scores 9% less than the league average.
- CeltaCelta attack: scores 9% less than the league average.
- Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano defence: concedes 7% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.2 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.2 for Celta: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.2 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.2 for Celta. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:30High reliabilityHomeReal Betis2-0likelyAwayMálagaModel1 · Real Betis 69%
The model expects 2.3 goals for Real Betis and 0.9 for Málaga. Real Betis start as favourites (69%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
- MálagaMálaga attack: scores 26% less than the league average.
- MálagaMálaga defence: concedes 20% more than average.
- Real BetisReal Betis attack: scores 16% more than the league average.
- Real BetisReal Betis defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.3 goals for Real Betis and 0.9 for Málaga: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.3 goals for Real Betis and 0.9 for Málaga. Real Betis start as favourites (69%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomeBarça3-0likelyAwayAlavésModel1 · Barça 82%
The model expects 3.3 goals for Barça and 0.9 for Alavés. Barça start as favourites (82%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- BarçaBarça attack: scores 93% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
- BarçaBarça defence: concedes 22% less than average.
- AlavésAlavés attack: scores 7% less than the league average.
- MatchRecent form: Barça WWWWW, Alavés LDLLD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 3.3 goals for Barça and 0.9 for Alavés: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 3.3 goals for Barça and 0.9 for Alavés. Barça start as favourites (82%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Sunday 1 November
13:00Low reliabilityHomeGetafe1-1likelyAwaySevilla FCModel1 · Getafe 37%
The model expects 1.1 goals for Getafe and 0.9 for Sevilla FC. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (32%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- GetafeGetafe attack: scores 38% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
- GetafeGetafe defence: concedes 22% less than average.
- Sevilla FCSevilla FC defence: concedes 8% more than average.
- Sevilla FCSevilla FC attack: scores 1% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Getafe and 0.9 for Sevilla FC: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.1 goals for Getafe and 0.9 for Sevilla FC. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (32%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:15High reliabilityHomeSantander1-2likelyAwayReal MadridModel2 · Real Madrid 65%
The model expects 1.3 goals for Santander and 2.6 for Real Madrid. Real Madrid are favourites even away from home (65%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- SantanderSantander defence: concedes 48% more than average.
- Real MadridReal Madrid attack: scores 39% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
- Real MadridReal Madrid defence: concedes 24% less than average.
- SantanderSantander attack: scores 4% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Santander and 2.6 for Real Madrid: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.3 goals for Santander and 2.6 for Real Madrid. Real Madrid are favourites even away from home (65%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:30Medium reliabilityHomeElche1-1likelyAwayValenciaModel1 · Elche 52%
The model expects 1.7 goals for Elche and 1.0 for Valencia. Elche start as favourites (52%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
- ValenciaValencia attack: scores 21% less than the league average.
- ValenciaValencia defence: concedes 2% more than average.
- ElcheElche attack: scores 1% less than the league average.
- ElcheElche defence: concedes 1% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Elche and 1.0 for Valencia: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.7 goals for Elche and 1.0 for Valencia. Elche start as favourites (52%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Low reliabilityHomeAthletic1-1likelyAwayReal SociedadModel1 · Athletic 41%
The model expects 1.7 goals for Athletic and 1.5 for Real Sociedad. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
- Real SociedadReal Sociedad attack: scores 25% more than the league average.
- Real SociedadReal Sociedad defence: concedes 19% more than average.
- AthleticAthletic attack: scores 15% less than the league average.
- AthleticAthletic defence: concedes 5% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Athletic and 1.5 for Real Sociedad: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.7 goals for Athletic and 1.5 for Real Sociedad. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Monday 2 November
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeDeportivo1-1likelyAwayOsasunaModel1 · Deportivo 53%
The model expects 1.7 goals for Deportivo and 1.0 for Osasuna. Deportivo start as favourites (53%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
- OsasunaOsasuna defence: concedes 15% more than average.
- OsasunaOsasuna attack: scores 14% less than the league average.
- DeportivoDeportivo attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
- DeportivoDeportivo defence: concedes 5% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Deportivo and 1.0 for Osasuna: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.7 goals for Deportivo and 1.0 for Osasuna. Deportivo start as favourites (53%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Next rounds
Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.
Matchday 10
Matchday 12
Already played
Last 18 predicted matches: outcome right 11 times out of 18.