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LaLiga · matchday 11

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:40

Real Betis – Málaga

LaLiga · Saturday 31 October 17:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

17:30High reliability
Home
Real Betis
2-0likely
Away
Málaga
Model1 · Real Betis 69%
Match CenterStatistics only
169%
X19%
212%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.9
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WWDWL
Away form
LLDLD
Most likely score2-011%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.3 goals for Real Betis and 0.9 for Málaga. Real Betis start as favourites (69%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Real Betis69%
Safer double chance1X88%
Most likely exact score2-011%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • MálagaMálaga attack: scores 26% less than the league average.
  • MálagaMálaga defence: concedes 20% more than average.
  • Real BetisReal Betis attack: scores 16% more than the league average.
  • Real BetisReal Betis defence: concedes 2% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.3 goals for Real Betis and 0.9 for Málaga: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.3 goals for Real Betis and 0.9 for Málaga. Real Betis start as favourites (69%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
1 + Over 1.560%
League average for this market37% · +23 points
Safer alternative1X · 88%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 83% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 74%
Most likely exact score2-0 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-0
11% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
2.3 - 0.9
total 3.2
Over 2.5
61%
Under 39%
Both teams score
53%
No 47%
Latest games: Real Betis
Lvs Barça2-5
Wvs Osasuna5-2
D@ Deportivo1-1
Wvs Getafe1-0
W@ Villarreal1-2
Latest games: Málaga
D@ Alavés1-1
Lvs Real Sociedad2-5
Dvs Espanyol1-1
L@ Getafe1-0
Lvs Villarreal1-3

All LaLiga matches →