‹ HomeIT

Fischietto finale

LaLiga · matchday 11

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:40

Santander – Real Madrid

LaLiga · Sunday 1 November 15:15. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

15:15High reliability
Home
Santander
1-2likely
Away
Real Madrid
Model2 · Real Madrid 65%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESantander
VS
AWAYReal Madrid
117%
X18%
265%
Expected goals1.3 – 2.6
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
LLDLW
Away form
WWLWW
Most likely score1-29%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.3 goals for Santander and 2.6 for Real Madrid. Real Madrid are favourites even away from home (65%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Real Madrid65%
Safer double chanceX283%
Most likely exact score1-29%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • SantanderSantander defence: concedes 48% more than average.
  • Real MadridReal Madrid attack: scores 39% more than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Real MadridReal Madrid defence: concedes 24% less than average.
  • SantanderSantander attack: scores 4% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Santander and 2.6 for Real Madrid: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.3 goals for Santander and 2.6 for Real Madrid. Real Madrid are favourites even away from home (65%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
2 + Over 1.560%
League average for this market21% · +39 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 83%
Other strong marketsX2 · Real Madrid avoid defeat · 83% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 76%
Most likely exact score1-2 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-2
9% · then 1-3, 1-1
Expected goals
1.3 - 2.6
total 3.9
Over 2.5
74%
Under 26%
Both teams score
67%
No 33%
Latest games: Santander
Wvs Espanyol2-1
L@ Osasuna2-0
Dvs Valencia2-2
L@ Celta5-0
L@ Barça7-2
Latest games: Real Madrid
Wvs Sevilla FC4-1
Wvs Villarreal1-0
L@ Atleti2-1
W@ Elche2-3
Wvs Rayo Vallecano4-1

All LaLiga matches →