‹ HomeIT

Fischietto finale

LaLiga · matchday 11

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:40

Rayo Vallecano – Celta

LaLiga · Saturday 31 October 15:15. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

15:15Low reliability
Home
Rayo Vallecano
1-1likely
Away
Celta
Model1 · Rayo Vallecano 36%
Match CenterStatistics only
136%
X29%
235%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LWDDL
Away form
DDWDW
Most likely score1-114%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.2 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.2 for Celta. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Rayo Vallecano36%
Safer double chance1X65%
Most likely exact score1-114%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • CeltaCelta defence: concedes 18% less than average.
  • Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano attack: scores 9% less than the league average.
  • CeltaCelta attack: scores 9% less than the league average.
  • Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano defence: concedes 7% more than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.2 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.2 for Celta: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.2 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.2 for Celta. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Celta avoid defeat64%
League average for this market52% · +12 points
Safer alternative1X · 65%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 71% · 1X · Rayo Vallecano avoid defeat · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 14%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
14% · then 1-0, 0-0
Expected goals
1.2 - 1.2
total 2.4
Over 2.5
44%
Under 56%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
Latest games: Rayo Vallecano
Lvs Elche0-3
D@ Getafe1-1
D@ Osasuna1-1
Wvs Espanyol2-1
L@ Real Madrid4-1
Latest games: Celta
Wvs Alavés2-1
D@ Elche0-0
Wvs Santander5-0
Dvs Málaga1-1
D@ Getafe1-1
Latest head-to-heads
18/01/26Celta – Rayo Vallecano3-0
21/09/25Rayo Vallecano – Celta1-1

All LaLiga matches →