Porto – Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal · Saturday 31 October 20:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:30High reliabilityHomePorto2-0likelyAwayEstoril PraiaModel1 · Porto 74%
Home
Porto
2-0likely
Away
Estoril Praia
Match CenterStatistics only
174%
X17%
29%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.6
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WWWWW
Away form
DLLLL
Most likely score2-014%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.3 goals for Porto and 0.6 for Estoril Praia. Porto start as favourites (74%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Porto74%
Safer double chance1X91%
Most likely exact score2-014%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- PortoPorto defence: concedes 40% less than average.
- PortoPorto attack: scores 36% more than the league average.
- Estoril PraiaEstoril Praia defence: concedes 17% more than average.
- Estoril PraiaEstoril Praia attack: scores 17% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.3 goals for Porto and 0.6 for Estoril Praia: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.3 goals for Porto and 0.6 for Estoril Praia. Porto start as favourites (74%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1 · Porto win74%
League average for this market40% · +34 points
Safer alternative1X · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 79% · 1 · Porto win · 74%
Most likely exact score2-0 · 14%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
2-0
14% · then 1-0, 3-0
Expected goals
2.3 - 0.6
total 2.9
Over 2.5
56%
Under 44%
Both teams score
43%
No 57%
Latest games: Porto
W@ Gil Vicente0-1
W@ Marítimo1-2
Wvs SL Benfica3-1
W@ Casa Pia1-4
Wvs Moreirense2-1
Latest games: Estoril Praia
Lvs Moreirense1-3
L@ Acad. Viseu2-1
Lvs Casa Pia1-2
L@ Braga1-0
Dvs Arouca0-0
Latest head-to-heads
12/04/26Estoril Praia – Porto1-3
30/11/25Porto – Estoril Praia1-0