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Friday 30 October
20:15High reliabilityHomeCasa Pia0-2likelyAwaySporting CPModel2 · Sporting CP 72%
The model expects 0.8 goals for Casa Pia and 2.4 for Sporting CP. Sporting CP are favourites even away from home (72%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Sporting CPSporting CP attack: scores 56% more than the league average.
- Casa PiaCasa Pia attack: scores 31% less than the league average.
- Sporting CPSporting CP defence: concedes 15% less than average.
- Casa PiaCasa Pia defence: concedes 15% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Casa Pia and 2.4 for Sporting CP: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 0.8 goals for Casa Pia and 2.4 for Sporting CP. Sporting CP are favourites even away from home (72%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Saturday 31 October
15:30Low reliabilityHomeMoreirense1-1likelyAwayAmadoraModel1 · Moreirense 40%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Moreirense and 1.4 for Amadora. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- AmadoraAmadora defence: concedes 22% more than average.
- MoreirenseMoreirense attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
- MoreirenseMoreirense defence: concedes 11% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
- AmadoraAmadora attack: scores 3% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Moreirense and 1.4 for Amadora: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Moreirense and 1.4 for Amadora. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:30High reliabilityHomePorto2-0likelyAwayEstoril PraiaModel1 · Porto 74%
The model expects 2.3 goals for Porto and 0.6 for Estoril Praia. Porto start as favourites (74%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- PortoPorto defence: concedes 40% less than average.
- PortoPorto attack: scores 36% more than the league average.
- Estoril PraiaEstoril Praia defence: concedes 17% more than average.
- Estoril PraiaEstoril Praia attack: scores 17% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.3 goals for Porto and 0.6 for Estoril Praia: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.3 goals for Porto and 0.6 for Estoril Praia. Porto start as favourites (74%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Sunday 1 November
15:30Medium reliabilityHomeArouca1-1likelyAwayCD NacionalModel1 · Arouca 52%
The model expects 1.6 goals for Arouca and 1.0 for CD Nacional. Arouca start as favourites (52%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- CD NacionalCD Nacional defence: concedes 14% more than average.
- CD NacionalCD Nacional attack: scores 14% less than the league average.
- AroucaArouca defence: concedes 9% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
- AroucaArouca attack: scores 3% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Arouca and 1.0 for CD Nacional: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.6 goals for Arouca and 1.0 for CD Nacional. Arouca start as favourites (52%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
18:00Medium reliabilityHomeMarítimo0-1likelyAwaySanta ClaraModel2 · Santa Clara 54%
The model expects 0.9 goals for Marítimo and 1.6 for Santa Clara. Santa Clara are favourites even away from home (54%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MarítimoMarítimo defence: concedes 32% more than average.
- Santa ClaraSanta Clara defence: concedes 23% less than average.
- MarítimoMarítimo attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
- Santa ClaraSanta Clara attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.9 goals for Marítimo and 1.6 for Santa Clara: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 0.9 goals for Marítimo and 1.6 for Santa Clara. Santa Clara are favourites even away from home (54%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
18:00High reliabilityHomeAcad. Viseu2-0likelyAwayRio AveModel1 · Acad. Viseu 64%
The model expects 2.1 goals for Acad. Viseu and 0.9 for Rio Ave. Acad. Viseu start as favourites (64%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Rio AveRio Ave defence: concedes 34% more than average.
- Rio AveRio Ave attack: scores 19% less than the league average.
- Acad. ViseuAcad. Viseu defence: concedes 13% less than average.
- Acad. ViseuAcad. Viseu attack: scores 9% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.1 goals for Acad. Viseu and 0.9 for Rio Ave: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.1 goals for Acad. Viseu and 0.9 for Rio Ave. Acad. Viseu start as favourites (64%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:30Low reliabilityHomeBraga1-1likelyAwayFamalicãoModel2 · Famalicão 38%
The model expects 1.2 goals for Braga and 1.2 for Famalicão. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- FamalicãoFamalicão defence: concedes 14% less than average.
- BragaBraga defence: concedes 8% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
- FamalicãoFamalicão attack: scores 3% more than the league average.
- BragaBraga attack: scores 2% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.2 goals for Braga and 1.2 for Famalicão: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.2 goals for Braga and 1.2 for Famalicão. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Monday 2 November
20:15High reliabilityHomeSL Benfica2-0likelyAwayAlvercaModel1 · SL Benfica 67%
The model expects 2.3 goals for SL Benfica and 1.0 for Alverca. SL Benfica start as favourites (67%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- SL BenficaSL Benfica attack: scores 62% more than the league average.
- SL BenficaSL Benfica defence: concedes 23% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
- AlvercaAlverca attack: scores 3% less than the league average.
- MatchRecent form: SL Benfica WWWLW, Alverca LWWWL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.3 goals for SL Benfica and 1.0 for Alverca: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.3 goals for SL Benfica and 1.0 for Alverca. SL Benfica start as favourites (67%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:15Low reliabilityHomeGil Vicente1-0likelyAwayVitória SCModel1 · Gil Vicente 40%
The model expects 1.2 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.0 for Vitória SC. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (30%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Gil VicenteGil Vicente defence: concedes 17% less than average.
- Gil VicenteGil Vicente attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- Vitória SCVitória SC attack: scores 9% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
- Vitória SCVitória SC defence: concedes 5% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.2 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.0 for Vitória SC: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.2 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.0 for Vitória SC. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (30%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Next rounds
Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.