Casa Pia – Sporting CP
Liga Portugal · Friday 30 October 20:15. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:15High reliabilityHomeCasa Pia0-2likelyAwaySporting CPModel2 · Sporting CP 72%
Home
Casa Pia
0-2likely
Away
Sporting CP
Match CenterStatistics only
111%
X17%
272%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.4
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
DLWLW
Away form
WDDWL
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome
The model expects 0.8 goals for Casa Pia and 2.4 for Sporting CP. Sporting CP are favourites even away from home (72%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Sporting CP72%
Safer double chanceX289%
Most likely exact score0-212%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Sporting CPSporting CP attack: scores 56% more than the league average.
- Casa PiaCasa Pia attack: scores 31% less than the league average.
- Sporting CPSporting CP defence: concedes 15% less than average.
- Casa PiaCasa Pia defence: concedes 15% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Casa Pia and 2.4 for Sporting CP: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 0.8 goals for Casa Pia and 2.4 for Sporting CP. Sporting CP are favourites even away from home (72%).
The model's final prediction
2 · Sporting CP win72%
League average for this market33% · +38 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 89%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 82% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 75%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-1, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.4
total 3.2
Over 2.5
61%
Under 39%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
Latest games: Casa Pia
W@ Amadora0-2
Lvs Santa Clara0-1
W@ Estoril Praia1-2
Lvs Porto1-4
D@ Vitória SC0-0
Latest games: Sporting CP
Lvs Acad. Viseu1-2
W@ Braga1-3
Dvs Arouca2-2
D@ Famalicão1-1
Wvs CD Nacional2-0
Latest head-to-heads
16/01/26Sporting CP – Casa Pia3-0
08/08/25Casa Pia – Sporting CP0-2