Gil Vicente – Vitória SC
Liga Portugal · Monday 2 November 20:15. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:15Low reliabilityHomeGil Vicente1-0likelyAwayVitória SCModel1 · Gil Vicente 40%
Home
Gil Vicente
1-0likely
Away
Vitória SC
Match CenterStatistics only
140%
X30%
231%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.0
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LDWWL
Away form
DLDLW
Most likely score1-014%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.2 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.0 for Vitória SC. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (30%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Gil Vicente40%
Safer double chance1X69%
Most likely exact score1-014%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Gil VicenteGil Vicente defence: concedes 17% less than average.
- Gil VicenteGil Vicente attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- Vitória SCVitória SC attack: scores 9% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
- Vitória SCVitória SC defence: concedes 5% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.2 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.0 for Vitória SC: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.2 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.0 for Vitória SC. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (30%).
The model's final prediction
Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals64%
League average for this market46% · +18 points
Safer alternative1X · 69%
Other strong markets1X · Gil Vicente avoid defeat · 69% · Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals · 64%
Most likely exact score1-0 · 14%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-0
14% · then 1-1, 0-0
Expected goals
1.2 - 1.0
total 2.1
Over 2.5
36%
Under 64%
Both teams score
43%
No 57%
Latest games: Gil Vicente
Lvs Porto0-1
W@ Braga1-2
W@ Moreirense0-1
Dvs Marítimo1-1
L@ SL Benfica3-1
Latest games: Vitória SC
Wvs Marítimo5-0
L@ SL Benfica2-0
Dvs Moreirense1-1
L@ Acad. Viseu2-1
Dvs Casa Pia0-0
Latest head-to-heads
18/04/26Gil Vicente – Vitória SC0-1
08/12/25Vitória SC – Gil Vicente0-0