SL Benfica – Alverca
Liga Portugal · Monday 2 November 20:15. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:15High reliabilityHomeSL Benfica2-0likelyAwayAlvercaModel1 · SL Benfica 67%
Home
SL Benfica
2-0likely
Away
Alverca
Match CenterStatistics only
167%
X18%
214%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.0
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WWWLW
Away form
LWWWL
Most likely score2-010%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.3 goals for SL Benfica and 1.0 for Alverca. SL Benfica start as favourites (67%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · SL Benfica67%
Safer double chance1X86%
Most likely exact score2-010%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- SL BenficaSL Benfica attack: scores 62% more than the league average.
- SL BenficaSL Benfica defence: concedes 23% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
- AlvercaAlverca attack: scores 3% less than the league average.
- MatchRecent form: SL Benfica WWWLW, Alverca LWWWL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.3 goals for SL Benfica and 1.0 for Alverca: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.3 goals for SL Benfica and 1.0 for Alverca. SL Benfica start as favourites (67%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1 + Over 1.559%
League average for this market31% · +28 points
Safer alternative1X · 86%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 84% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 73%
Most likely exact score2-0 · 10%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
2-0
10% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
2.3 - 1.0
total 3.3
Over 2.5
64%
Under 36%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
Latest games: SL Benfica
Wvs Vitória SC2-0
L@ Porto3-1
Wvs Gil Vicente3-1
W@ Moreirense0-4
W@ Marítimo0-3
Latest games: Alverca
Lvs Arouca0-1
W@ Famalicão1-4
Wvs Rio Ave1-0
W@ CD Nacional1-3
Lvs Braga1-2
Latest head-to-heads
08/02/26SL Benfica – Alverca2-1
31/08/25Alverca – SL Benfica1-2