Arouca – CD Nacional
Liga Portugal · Sunday 1 November 15:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
15:30Medium reliabilityHomeArouca1-1likelyAwayCD NacionalModel1 · Arouca 52%
Home
Arouca
1-1likely
Away
CD Nacional
Match CenterStatistics only
152%
X25%
223%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
DLDWW
Away form
LLLLW
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.6 goals for Arouca and 1.0 for CD Nacional. Arouca start as favourites (52%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Arouca52%
Safer double chance1X77%
Most likely exact score1-112%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- CD NacionalCD Nacional defence: concedes 14% more than average.
- CD NacionalCD Nacional attack: scores 14% less than the league average.
- AroucaArouca defence: concedes 9% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
- AroucaArouca attack: scores 3% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Arouca and 1.0 for CD Nacional: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.6 goals for Arouca and 1.0 for CD Nacional. Arouca start as favourites (52%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1X + Under 3.555%
League average for this market42% · +12 points
Safer alternative1X · 77%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 74% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 73%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
12% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.0
total 2.6
Over 2.5
49%
Under 51%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%
Latest games: Arouca
W@ Alverca0-1
Wvs Amadora1-0
D@ Sporting CP2-2
Lvs Santa Clara1-2
D@ Estoril Praia0-0
Latest games: CD Nacional
Wvs Braga1-0
L@ Rio Ave3-2
Lvs Famalicão0-4
Lvs Alverca1-3
L@ Sporting CP2-0
Latest head-to-heads
21/02/26Arouca – CD Nacional3-0
20/09/25CD Nacional – Arouca1-2