Marítimo – Santa Clara
Liga Portugal · Sunday 1 November 18:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
18:00Medium reliabilityHomeMarítimo0-1likelyAwaySanta ClaraModel2 · Santa Clara 54%
Home
Marítimo
0-1likely
Away
Santa Clara
Match CenterStatistics only
121%
X25%
254%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.6
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
LLDLL
Away form
DWWDW
Most likely score0-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 0.9 goals for Marítimo and 1.6 for Santa Clara. Santa Clara are favourites even away from home (54%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Santa Clara54%
Safer double chanceX279%
Most likely exact score0-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MarítimoMarítimo defence: concedes 32% more than average.
- Santa ClaraSanta Clara defence: concedes 23% less than average.
- MarítimoMarítimo attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
- Santa ClaraSanta Clara attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 6% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.9 goals for Marítimo and 1.6 for Santa Clara: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 0.9 goals for Marítimo and 1.6 for Santa Clara. Santa Clara are favourites even away from home (54%).
The model's final prediction
2 · Santa Clara win54%
League average for this market33% · +21 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 79%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 74% · Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 73%
Most likely exact score0-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
0-1
13% · then 1-1, 0-2
Expected goals
0.9 - 1.6
total 2.6
Over 2.5
47%
Under 53%
Both teams score
49%
No 51%
Latest games: Marítimo
L@ Vitória SC5-0
Lvs Porto1-2
D@ Gil Vicente1-1
L@ Moreirense3-1
Lvs SL Benfica0-3
Latest games: Santa Clara
W@ Casa Pia0-1
Dvs Braga0-0
W@ Arouca1-2
Wvs Rio Ave4-0
D@ Alverca1-1