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Ligue 1 · matchday 9

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:40

Lille – RC Lens

Ligue 1 · Friday 30 October 20:05. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:05Low reliability
Home
Lille
1-1likely
Away
RC Lens
Model1 · Lille 39%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMELille
VS
AWAYRC Lens
139%
X27%
233%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WWLWD
Away form
DLWWW
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.4 goals for Lille and 1.2 for RC Lens. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Lille39%
Safer double chance1X67%
Most likely exact score1-113%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • LilleLille defence: concedes 28% less than average.
  • RC LensRC Lens attack: scores 27% more than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
  • RC LensRC Lens defence: concedes 9% less than average.
  • LilleLille attack: scores 6% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Lille and 1.2 for RC Lens: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.4 goals for Lille and 1.2 for RC Lens. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals73%
League average for this market66% · +7 points
Safer alternative1X · 67%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 73% · 1X · Lille avoid defeat · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-0, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.3
total 2.6
Over 2.5
49%
Under 51%
Both teams score
54%
No 46%
Latest games: Lille
Dvs Brest1-1
Wvs Le Havre1-0
L@ Nice2-1
Wvs Troyes2-0
W@ Toulouse0-1
Latest games: RC Lens
Wvs Paris FC2-1
W@ Troyes1-3
Wvs Olympique Lyon2-1
L@ Monaco2-1
D@ Le Mans2-2
Latest head-to-heads
04/04/26Lille – RC Lens3-0
20/09/25RC Lens – Lille3-0

All Ligue 1 matches →