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Fischietto finale

Ligue 1 · matchday 9

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:40

For each match the model chooses the most likely outcome. Here you put them together and see how much the overall probability drops.

Selections
Type

Double chance (1X, X2), Over 1.5 and Under 3.5 are almost always the most likely but say little about the match. "Clear-cut selections" leaves them out.

THE MOST LIKELY68%
Strasbourg – Auxerre
Most likely outcome: At least 3 goals · statistical model

The most likely

sorted by probability
#1TOP
Strasbourg – Auxerre
At least 3 goals · Over 2.5
68%probability
#2
Olympique Lyon – Angers SCO
Olympique Lyon win · 1
66%probability
#3
Marseille – Toulouse
Both teams score · Both score
65%probability
✓ selections ranked by the model3 selectionscombined probability 29%

These are statistical probabilities, not guarantees. The combined probability is the product of the single probabilities and drops quickly as you add selections.

How the probability drops

1 selection68%
2 selections45%
3 selections29%
4 selections18%
5 selections11%

Matches are treated as independent. The more selections you add, the more likely one of them is wrong.