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Friday 30 October
18:00High reliabilityHomeLe Havre0-1likelyAwayPSGModel2 · PSG 59%
The model expects 0.9 goals for Le Havre and 1.8 for PSG. PSG are favourites even away from home (59%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- PSGPSG attack: scores 31% more than the league average.
- Le HavreLe Havre attack: scores 27% less than the league average.
- PSGPSG defence: concedes 24% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
- Le HavreLe Havre defence: concedes 3% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.9 goals for Le Havre and 1.8 for PSG: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 0.9 goals for Le Havre and 1.8 for PSG. PSG are favourites even away from home (59%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:05Low reliabilityHomeLille1-1likelyAwayRC LensModel1 · Lille 39%
The model expects 1.4 goals for Lille and 1.2 for RC Lens. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- LilleLille defence: concedes 28% less than average.
- RC LensRC Lens attack: scores 27% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
- RC LensRC Lens defence: concedes 9% less than average.
- LilleLille attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Lille and 1.2 for RC Lens: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Lille and 1.2 for RC Lens. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Saturday 31 October
16:15Low reliabilityHomeNice1-1likelyAwayStade RennaisModel2 · Stade Rennais 43%
The model expects 1.4 goals for Nice and 1.7 for Stade Rennais. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Stade RennaisStade Rennais attack: scores 26% more than the league average.
- NiceNice attack: scores 20% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
- Stade RennaisStade Rennais defence: concedes 11% more than average.
- NiceNice defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Nice and 1.7 for Stade Rennais: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Nice and 1.7 for Stade Rennais. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
19:45High reliabilityHomeOlympique Lyon2-0likelyAwayAngers SCOModel1 · Olympique Lyon 66%
The model expects 2.1 goals for Olympique Lyon and 0.8 for Angers SCO. Olympique Lyon start as favourites (66%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Angers SCOAngers SCO attack: scores 21% less than the league average.
- Olympique LyonOlympique Lyon defence: concedes 21% less than average.
- Angers SCOAngers SCO defence: concedes 19% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
- Olympique LyonOlympique Lyon attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.1 goals for Olympique Lyon and 0.8 for Angers SCO: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.1 goals for Olympique Lyon and 0.8 for Angers SCO. Olympique Lyon start as favourites (66%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
19:45Medium reliabilityHomeLorient1-1likelyAwayBrestModel1 · Lorient 46%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Lorient and 1.1 for Brest. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- LorientLorient defence: concedes 17% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
- LorientLorient attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
- BrestBrest defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- BrestBrest attack: scores 1% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Lorient and 1.1 for Brest: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Lorient and 1.1 for Brest. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
19:45Low reliabilityHomeTroyes1-1likelyAwayLe MansModel2 · Le Mans 45%
The model expects 1.4 goals for Troyes and 1.7 for Le Mans. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- TroyesTroyes defence: concedes 28% more than average.
- TroyesTroyes attack: scores 26% less than the league average.
- Le MansLe Mans defence: concedes 19% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
- MatchRecent form: Troyes LLLLL, Le Mans DDWLL (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Troyes and 1.7 for Le Mans: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Troyes and 1.7 for Le Mans. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Sunday 1 November
14:00Medium reliabilityHomeStrasbourg1-1likelyAwayAuxerreModel1 · Strasbourg 50%
The model expects 2.0 goals for Strasbourg and 1.5 for Auxerre. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
- StrasbourgStrasbourg attack: scores 16% more than the league average.
- StrasbourgStrasbourg defence: concedes 12% more than average.
- AuxerreAuxerre defence: concedes 11% more than average.
- AuxerreAuxerre attack: scores 4% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for Strasbourg and 1.5 for Auxerre: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.0 goals for Strasbourg and 1.5 for Auxerre. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
16:15Low reliabilityHomeParis FC1-1likelyAwayMonacoModel1 · Paris FC 41%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Paris FC and 1.3 for Monaco. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
- Paris FCParis FC defence: concedes 13% less than average.
- MonacoMonaco defence: concedes 12% less than average.
- MonacoMonaco attack: scores 10% more than the league average.
- Paris FCParis FC attack: scores 5% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Paris FC and 1.3 for Monaco: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Paris FC and 1.3 for Monaco. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
19:45Medium reliabilityHomeMarseille1-1likelyAwayToulouseModel1 · Marseille 47%
The model expects 1.9 goals for Marseille and 1.4 for Toulouse. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MarseilleMarseille attack: scores 18% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
- ToulouseToulouse attack: scores 10% more than the league average.
- MarseilleMarseille defence: concedes 4% less than average.
- ToulouseToulouse defence: concedes 1% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Marseille and 1.4 for Toulouse: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.9 goals for Marseille and 1.4 for Toulouse. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Next rounds
Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.
Matchday 8
Matchday 10
Already played
Last 18 predicted matches: outcome right 8 times out of 18.