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Ligue 1 · matchday 9

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:40

Le Havre – PSG

Ligue 1 · Friday 30 October 18:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

18:00High reliability
Home
Le Havre
0-1likely
Away
PSG
Model2 · PSG 59%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMELe Havre
VS
AWAYPSG
117%
X24%
259%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.8
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
LDLLL
Away form
LWWWW
Most likely score0-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.9 goals for Le Havre and 1.8 for PSG. PSG are favourites even away from home (59%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · PSG59%
Safer double chanceX283%
Most likely exact score0-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • PSGPSG attack: scores 31% more than the league average.
  • Le HavreLe Havre attack: scores 27% less than the league average.
  • PSGPSG defence: concedes 24% less than average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
  • Le HavreLe Havre defence: concedes 3% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.9 goals for Le Havre and 1.8 for PSG: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.9 goals for Le Havre and 1.8 for PSG. PSG are favourites even away from home (59%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 · PSG avoid defeat83%
League average for this market54% · +29 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 83%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 74% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 73%
Most likely exact score0-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-1
12% · then 1-1, 0-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 1.8
total 2.6
Over 2.5
49%
Under 51%
Both teams score
48%
No 52%
Latest games: Le Havre
Lvs Auxerre1-3
L@ Lille1-0
L@ Toulouse3-2
Dvs Angers SCO0-0
Lvs Brest1-2
Latest games: PSG
W@ Strasbourg1-3
Wvs Le Mans3-1
W@ Marseille1-2
W@ Brest0-1
Lvs Monaco1-2
Latest head-to-heads
28/02/26Le Havre – PSG0-1
22/11/25PSG – Le Havre3-0

All Ligue 1 matches →