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Ligue 1 · matchday 9

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:40

Nice – Stade Rennais

Ligue 1 · Saturday 31 October 16:15. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

16:15Low reliability
Home
Nice
1-1likely
Away
Stade Rennais
Model2 · Stade Rennais 43%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMENice
VS
AWAYStade Rennais
132%
X25%
243%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.7
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LWWLW
Away form
WWLWL
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.4 goals for Nice and 1.7 for Stade Rennais. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Stade Rennais43%
Safer double chanceX268%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Stade RennaisStade Rennais attack: scores 26% more than the league average.
  • NiceNice attack: scores 20% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 17% more than the away side.
  • Stade RennaisStade Rennais defence: concedes 11% more than average.
  • NiceNice defence: concedes 2% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Nice and 1.7 for Stade Rennais: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.4 goals for Nice and 1.7 for Stade Rennais. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.556%
League average for this market39% · +17 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 68%
Other strong marketsX2 · Stade Rennais avoid defeat · 68% · Both teams score · 62%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 2-1
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.7
total 3.1
Over 2.5
60%
Under 40%
Both teams score
62%
No 38%
Latest games: Nice
W@ Brest1-2
L@ Olympique Lyon2-1
Wvs Strasbourg2-1
Wvs Lille2-1
L@ Auxerre1-0
Latest games: Stade Rennais
L@ Paris FC4-3
Wvs Auxerre4-1
L@ Olympique Lyon4-0
Wvs Marseille1-0
W@ Angers SCO1-2
Latest head-to-heads
08/03/26Nice – Stade Rennais0-4
26/10/25Stade Rennais – Nice1-2

All Ligue 1 matches →