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Premier League · matchday 9

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:39

Hull City – Ipswich Town

Premier League · Saturday 31 October 15:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

15:00Medium reliability
Home
Hull City
1-1likely
Away
Ipswich Town
Model1 · Hull City 48%
Match CenterStatistics only
148%
X26%
226%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
DDLDL
Away form
WLWLD
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.7 goals for Hull City and 1.2 for Ipswich Town. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Hull City48%
Safer double chance1X74%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
  • Ipswich TownIpswich Town defence: concedes 21% more than average.
  • Hull CityHull City defence: concedes 12% less than average.
  • Hull CityHull City attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
  • Ipswich TownIpswich Town attack: scores 6% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Hull City and 1.2 for Ipswich Town: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.7 goals for Hull City and 1.2 for Ipswich Town. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
1X · Hull City avoid defeat74%
League average for this market70% · +4 points
Safer alternative1X · 74%
Other strong markets1X · Hull City avoid defeat · 74% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.7 - 1.2
total 2.8
Over 2.5
54%
Under 46%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
Latest games: Hull City
L@ Fulham1-0
Dvs Everton2-2
L@ Newcastle2-1
D@ Chelsea2-2
Dvs Aston Villa0-0
Latest games: Ipswich Town
Dvs Nottingham1-1
L@ Man City3-2
Wvs Fulham2-1
L@ Everton1-0
W@ Crystal Palace2-3

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