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Saturday 31 October
12:30Low reliabilityHomeChelsea1-1likelyAwayMan UnitedModel1 · Chelsea 41%
The model expects 1.8 goals for Chelsea and 1.6 for Man United. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
- ChelseaChelsea attack: scores 21% more than the league average.
- Man UnitedMan United attack: scores 17% more than the league average.
- ChelseaChelsea defence: concedes 13% more than average.
- Man UnitedMan United defence: concedes 5% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Chelsea and 1.6 for Man United: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.8 goals for Chelsea and 1.6 for Man United. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Low reliabilityHomeMan City1-1likelyAwayBrighton HoveModel1 · Man City 44%
The model expects 1.7 goals for Man City and 1.4 for Brighton Hove. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Man CityMan City attack: scores 39% more than the league average.
- Brighton HoveBrighton Hove attack: scores 38% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
- Brighton HoveBrighton Hove defence: concedes 21% less than average.
- Man CityMan City defence: concedes 18% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Man City and 1.4 for Brighton Hove: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.7 goals for Man City and 1.4 for Brighton Hove. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Low reliabilityHomeBournemouth1-1likelyAwayLeeds UnitedModel1 · Bournemouth 38%
The model expects 1.3 goals for Bournemouth and 1.2 for Leeds United. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
- Leeds UnitedLeeds United defence: concedes 14% less than average.
- Leeds UnitedLeeds United attack: scores 4% less than the league average.
- BournemouthBournemouth defence: concedes 4% more than average.
- BournemouthBournemouth attack: scores 1% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Bournemouth and 1.2 for Leeds United: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.3 goals for Bournemouth and 1.2 for Leeds United. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Low reliabilityHomeCoventry City1-1likelyAwaySunderlandModel1 · Coventry City 40%
The model expects 1.4 goals for Coventry City and 1.2 for Sunderland. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
- Coventry CityCoventry City attack: scores 18% less than the league average.
- SunderlandSunderland attack: scores 16% less than the league average.
- Coventry CityCoventry City defence: concedes 15% more than average.
- SunderlandSunderland defence: concedes 7% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Coventry City and 1.2 for Sunderland: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Coventry City and 1.2 for Sunderland. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Medium reliabilityHomeHull City1-1likelyAwayIpswich TownModel1 · Hull City 48%
The model expects 1.7 goals for Hull City and 1.2 for Ipswich Town. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
- Ipswich TownIpswich Town defence: concedes 21% more than average.
- Hull CityHull City defence: concedes 12% less than average.
- Hull CityHull City attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
- Ipswich TownIpswich Town attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Hull City and 1.2 for Ipswich Town: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.7 goals for Hull City and 1.2 for Ipswich Town. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Medium reliabilityHomeBrentford1-1likelyAwayNottinghamModel1 · Brentford 49%
The model expects 1.6 goals for Brentford and 1.0 for Nottingham. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
- NottinghamNottingham attack: scores 13% less than the league average.
- BrentfordBrentford attack: scores 10% more than the league average.
- NottinghamNottingham defence: concedes 8% less than average.
- BrentfordBrentford defence: concedes 5% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Brentford and 1.0 for Nottingham: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.6 goals for Brentford and 1.0 for Nottingham. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:30Medium reliabilityHomeTottenham1-1likelyAwayCrystal PalaceModel1 · Tottenham 49%
The model expects 1.6 goals for Tottenham and 1.1 for Crystal Palace. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
- Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace defence: concedes 22% more than average.
- TottenhamTottenham attack: scores 13% less than the league average.
- Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
- TottenhamTottenham defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Tottenham and 1.1 for Crystal Palace: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.6 goals for Tottenham and 1.1 for Crystal Palace. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeAston Villa1-1likelyAwayFulhamModel1 · Aston Villa 47%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Aston Villa and 1.0 for Fulham. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
- FulhamFulham attack: scores 18% less than the league average.
- FulhamFulham defence: concedes 9% less than average.
- Aston VillaAston Villa attack: scores 5% more than the league average.
- Aston VillaAston Villa defence: concedes 1% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Aston Villa and 1.0 for Fulham: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Aston Villa and 1.0 for Fulham. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Sunday 1 November
16:30Low reliabilityHomeLiverpool1-1likelyAwayArsenalModel2 · Arsenal 44%
The model expects 1.1 goals for Liverpool and 1.4 for Arsenal. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- ArsenalArsenal defence: concedes 37% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
- ArsenalArsenal attack: scores 17% more than the league average.
- LiverpoolLiverpool attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
- LiverpoolLiverpool defence: concedes 6% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Liverpool and 1.4 for Arsenal: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.1 goals for Liverpool and 1.4 for Arsenal. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Monday 2 November
20:00Low reliabilityHomeNewcastle1-1likelyAwayEvertonModel1 · Newcastle 41%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Newcastle and 1.3 for Everton. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 25% more than the away side.
- NewcastleNewcastle defence: concedes 19% more than average.
- EvertonEverton attack: scores 13% less than the league average.
- EvertonEverton defence: concedes 5% less than average.
- NewcastleNewcastle attack: scores 1% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Newcastle and 1.3 for Everton: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Newcastle and 1.3 for Everton. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Next rounds
Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.
Matchday 8
Matchday 10
Already played
Last 18 predicted matches: outcome right 6 times out of 18.