| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 7 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brentford | 7 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 8 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Hull City | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 | Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Man United | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 7 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Nottingham | 8 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | Coventry City | 8 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Blue bar: top four. Red bar: bottom three. Tap a team to open its page.
How the season could end
The model played the 305 remaining matches 5,000 times, starting from today's table. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference and goals scored (not head-to-head). These are probabilities, not certainties.
| Team | Avg. pos. | First place | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 2.0 | 38% | 99% | 0% |
| Man City | 2.1 | 35% | 98% | 0% |
| Brighton Hove | 2.3 | 27% | 97% | 0% |
| Liverpool | 7.0 | <1% | 25% | 1% |
| Chelsea | 7.7 | <1% | 18% | 1% |
| Brentford | 8.0 | <1% | 16% | 1% |
| Man United | 8.2 | <1% | 14% | 2% |
| Leeds United | 8.3 | 0% | 13% | 1% |
| Aston Villa | 8.6 | <1% | 12% | 2% |
| Hull City | 10.9 | <1% | 3% | 6% |
| Everton | 12.5 | 0% | 2% | 12% |
| Bournemouth | 12.9 | 0% | 1% | 14% |
| Ipswich Town | 13.1 | 0% | 1% | 15% |
| Tottenham | 13.5 | 0% | 1% | 17% |
| Fulham | 13.9 | 0% | 1% | 20% |
| Nottingham | 14.3 | 0% | <1% | 24% |
| Newcastle | 14.5 | 0% | <1% | 26% |
| Crystal Palace | 16.1 | 0% | <1% | 44% |
| Sunderland | 16.7 | 0% | <1% | 51% |
| Coventry City | 17.6 | 0% | <1% | 64% |